Buy-and-Really-Hold Will Suck Your Portfolio Dry

It’s not often that a passive investor committed to Modern Portfolio Theory will help make our case for active management based on relative strength, but heck, we’ll take any help we can get.

In this guest article from Money Magazine, William Bernstein of Efficient Frontier Advisors discusses findings from a study by Dimensional Fund Advisors.  The article gets to the thesis early:

It’s a little-known and depressing fact, but the majority of individual securities tend to post negative returns over the long run.

This, I think, is a ringing indictment of buy-and-really-hold investing.  Often individuals assume that they can purchase shares of leading companies, shower them with benign neglect, and have the portfolio perform well.  But, of course, today’s leader always turns into tomorrow’s laggard.  The majority of stocks, given enough time, collectively lose money.  Mr. Bernstein goes on to say,

In fact, researchers at the investment management firm Dimensional Fund Advisors found that from 1980 to 2008, the top-performing 25% of stocks were responsible for all the gains in the broad market, as represented by the University of Chicago’s CRSP total equity market database.

As for the bottom 75% of stocks in the U.S. market, they collectively generated annual losses … over the past 29 years.

The following chart shows that if you miss the best 25% of stocks, you will end up losing more than 2% per year.

Source: Money Magazine and Dimensional Fund Advisors

The chart is offered as evidence of the futility of stock picking and the triumph of index investing.  What it really reveals is this: index investing would be an abject failure if it weren’t for two things: 1) active management and/or 2) relative strength weighting. First, if indexes didn’t replace companies that went out of business or were no longer “representative,” they’d have a buy-and-hold portfolio that, by their own calculations, would lose money.  Replacing losers (dead companies) with winners (live companies) is, in fact, an efficient casting out process used for active portfolio management.  Second, index returns are helped immensely by increasing the weighting of the stocks that go up the most.  This is actually a form of relative strength weighting, more commonly referred to by index providers as “capitalization weighting.”  Emphasizing the winners at the expense of the losers also tends to help returns over time.

The alert reader will quickly discern that “missing the best 25% of stocks” is another version of the “if you miss the 10 best days” argument.  There’s one problem: while it may be impossible to pick out the 10 best days, there’s a ton of evidence to suggest that it is possible to select the strongest stocks using relative strength.  Even efficient market theorists like Eugene Fama and Kenneth French have admitted that relative strength works.

Bernstein writes:

This may get you thinking: If a small list of securities accounts for the market’s long-term returns, why not avoid all the headaches and losses you’ve suffered recently by carefully choosing these superstocks?

That’s exactly what I’m thinking!  Why not, indeed! I’d rather own the superstocks.  And I will even let Ken French pick the stocks.  Instead of buying an index fund, I’m going to let Ken French buy the best recent performers and cast out the stocks that weaken each month.  This chart comes from Dr. French’s own website and shows the equity curve for large-cap, high relative strength stocks since 1927.

As an investor, you have three basic options.  You can buy-and-really-hold which will insure that most of the companies you buy will lose money over a long time frame.  You can buy an index fund, which will tend to perform better than buy-and-really-hold due to the hidden active management process of casting out and/or through capitalization weighting.  Or you can identify the strongest stocks and use both casting out and relative strength weighting to manage the portfolio.  Option 3 has historically provided the best returns, but it will be volatile and will go through periods of drawdown.  (Of course, Options 1 and 2 will also be volatile and will go through periods of drawdown!)

As a result, I see no reason not to prefer active management using a systematic relative strength process.  It’s always interesting to me how investors with a passive approach can selectively pull out data that they then claim supports an indexing approach.  [Note: a major part of the reason for the cognitive dissonance in Dimensional Fund Advisors’ data has to do with the original research source.  The finding that 25% of all stocks account for all of the market’s gains came from a Blackstar Funds research paper, The Capitalism Distribution.  Blackstar’s own interpretation of the findings was that such a skewed distribution of returns supported a trend-following method focused on strong stocks–exactly opposite of what DFA suggests!  We happen to agree with Blackstar.]

53 Responses to Buy-and-Really-Hold Will Suck Your Portfolio Dry

  1. Rob says:

    You quote Bernstein from the linked article
    “This may get you thinking: If a small list of securities accounts for the market’s long-term returns, why not avoid all the headaches and losses you’ve suffered recently by carefully choosing these superstocks?”
    while leaving out the very next paragraph in Bernstein’s article.
    “Simple: Because a portfolio of “carefully chosen” equities could easily wind up with none of the best-performing stocks in the market – and thus produce flat or negative returns over many years. Missing out on even a handful of superstocks can leave you short of your target.”
    Shouldn’t both paragraphs be included?

  2. Mike Moody says:

    Thanks for your comment!

    The methodology that is being discussed is relative strength stock selection. A relative strength portfolio buys strong stocks. The best 25% of stocks from which all of the return comes are, by definition, strong stocks. An RS methodology picks stocks from that very pool. Some poop out quickly (and are replaced), but others go on to strong gains. Blackstar makes the same point in their article. They look for stocks making new all-time highs. A strong stock, by definition, is continually making new highs and that is the pool of stocks they are looking at.

    I see your point about the second paragraph, but I’m not trying to be misleading. The reason I don’t think the second paragraph that you cite is material is because an RS method is, in effect, already picking from the “superstock” list. It’s true that it doesn’t work every quarter or even every year, but Ken French’s data shows that it has worked over many decades.

    Furthermore, there is nothing to stop an index fund from producing flat or negative returns over many years. Exhibit 1: Japan.

    • Lisa says:

      In your buying these strong stocks, what have your returns been?

      • Mike Moody says:

        The returns for the index funds like PDP are available on Morningstar or similar sites. The returns for the mutual funds, like DWAFX, are also available there. (DWAFX won the 2007 Lipper Award for the best fund in its class.) Separate account returns, along with quarterly commentary, are available on our website.

  3. […] If most stocks go down over time, how can buy-and-hold work?  (Systematic Relative Strength) […]

  4. David Merkel says:

    I would have to look at the statistics to know for sure, but I think you are misinterpreting the DFA study. Even if the bottom 75% of stocks go down on average over the long run, that does not mean that 75% of stocks go down over the long run. In that 75% are: stocks that go up less than the top 25%, those that go down, and those that go down a lot, averaging to down.

    It is probably closer to 50/50 for stocks that go up vs down over the long haul. Your argument against stockpicking is not valid here, and note, I agree that momentum works on average. I have written about this at my blog.

    Stockpicking using fundamental analysis vs. momentum does not have to be either/or. They work better together.

  5. Mike Moody says:

    I agree that value and momentum are not either/or. They tend to complement one another well and we’ve written about that a lot on this blog. When you look at the statistics from Blackstar–and DFA says this too–the bottom 75% cumulatively generate losses, and all of the returns come from the strongest 25%. Maybe I need to word it more clearly. According to Blackstar, about 39% of all of the stocks were absolute losers on their own. As you point out, in that 75% are some stocks that go up a little but that have their small gains wiped out by lots of stocks that have significant losses or that go to zero!

    I’m not arguing against stockpicking–given the nature of the distribution of returns, it seems pretty important to own good stocks. Owning a broad cross-section might not work out very well. We happen to prefer relative strength as a selection method, but clearly there are other return factors which have been shown to work as well.

    Thanks for your very astute comment!

  6. […] If most stocks go down over time, how can buy-and-hold work?  (Systematic Relative Strength) […]

  7. Josh Stern says:

    Arguing in the opposite direction, I’ve been impressed by how soundly the Value Line Arithmetic average, and to a lesser extent the equal weighted S&P 500 proxy RSP, has beaten the S&P 500 over the past decade and longer. These portfolios adopt basically the opposite strategy to the one you suggest: they basically buy everything in equal amounts and fade relative strength.

    I actually do believe that using some functions of relative strength can improve results, but I also believe that there are many, many relative strength strategies that will under perform the market.

    • Mike Moody says:

      Equal-weighted indexes have a small and mid-cap tilt, which has been a good place to be over the last decade. The equal-weighted S&P also still benefits from a form of active management: dead companies go out of the index and living companies are added. Otherwise, you would be stuck with the likes of Enron and Worldcom forever.

      I’m not exactly sure what you had in mind when you indicated that many relative strength strategies would underperform the market. Certainly that has been historically true with very short or very long relative strength lookback periods. I’m sure it’s true of some value strategies as well. As with most things, it’s probably easier to find strategies that don’t work than strategies that do.

      Great comment.

      • Josh Stern says:

        My use of “last decade” was a bit of a compromise between a few caveats, which can be expanded on. Value Line Arithmetic Index has outperformed over a much longer period. Here is Yahoo’s chart of dramatic outperformance going back to 1984 or so (hope this link works for you): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=^VAY&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=^GSPC&c=^DJI

        The caveat there is that this isn’t precisely a realizable real world performance because it literally involves daily rebalancing of many stocks including small and illiquid ones. RSP, which doesn’t involve small stocks and is a real portfolio/ETF, has outperformed since its creation in 2003: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=RSP&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=^VAY&c=^GSPC&c=^DJI

        It’s my view that a real world portfolio constructed using methods similar to RSP but the idea of equal weighting something that looked roughly like the Wilshire 5000 would perform somewhere in between RSP and the Value Line Arithmetic.

        I’ve seen research suggesting that momentum is mean reverting on very short and very long time scales but persisting on time scales of a few months. One way of looking at the Value Line Arithmetic out-performance is to say that the combination of the short and long term mean reversion is theoretically more powerful than the intermediate term momentum factor. This may still be slightly true even with a poor approximation like RSP.

        Of course all of these things could change in unpredictable ways if more investors/traders started taking them into account.

  8. […] money. if you miss the best 25% of stocks, you will end up losing more than 2% per year. Buy-and-Really-Hold Will Suck Your Portfolio Dry Systematic Relative Strength __________________ @ S.A.@ S.A. Instablog@ N.R. @ N.R. […]

  9. forrest doyle says:

    I’m not sure where this gets us. It’s a tautology to say that the best performing stocks do the best. And if you only invest in those stocks you’ll do very well. But right now, what are the 25% best performing stocks (looking forward, not backwards). Perhaps momentum works as a stock picker but also faces difficulties (remember Countrywide, WaMu) and I don’t know how it performs leading up to a crash like ’08-’09. And surely there must be additional criteria to weed out penny stocks, lucky stocks, manipulated small caps, etc. Fundamentals? Google and BP look fundamentally strong but have been losing investments lately. It seems this discussion strengthens the case for major index ETF investing, especially since SPX is used a a benchmark to compare Mutual Funds returns (few are able to beat SPX consistently over a period of years). It’s not as exciting as buying AAPL at $10 or $50 or $100 or Enron at $100 or $50 or $10, but whatever the long term trend, it will do better than most individual stock picker strategies.

    • Mike Moody says:

      One of the strengths of relative strength investing is that you rarely get stuck with items like Countrywide or Washington Mutual during their death throes. You might own them during the uptrend, but once they begin to have problems they lose relative strength and get removed from the portfolio.

      As the blog points out, index investing does work, largely because they don’t REALLY buy and hold. They actively knock out losers (like Countrywide and Wamu, which are now out of the index) and add winners. That portfolio process, which is known as casting out, really helps the returns over time.

      Lots of research shows that both disciplined value strategies and disciplined relative strength strategies can outperform even the market indexes over time.

  10. forrest doyle says:

    And how many of these were on the list last December?

    Top 10 performers of 2010

    Company Percent Change
    Acme Packet Inc. 138.2727
    Netflix Inc. 109.3399
    Mariner Energy Inc. 84.3239
    Valassis Communications Inc. 82.7492
    Coinstar Inc. 82.3614
    Zions Bancorp 77.6306
    US Airways Group Inc. 76.2397
    Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc. 71.7688
    ev3 Inc. 67.2414
    Liberty Media Holding Corp. Capital 65.6616

  11. Mike Moody says:

    Our universe is mid and large cap. The only stocks on your list that were in our universe were Netflix, Mariner Energy, and Zions Bancorp. Netflix was the top performer among the stocks within our universe and some of our portfolios hold it. There was a blog piece about the market signal for Netflix and Blockbuster in the spring. http://systematicrelativestrength.com/?s=nflx
    No strategy will own every big winner, but a relative strength strategy does allow for many strong stocks to have a chance to be included in the portfolios.

  12. Mike Buck says:

    In your piece you included an equity curve chart for high rs stocks based on data from Ken French. Professor French makes a lot data available on his site – could you identify the data series used to create your chart? Thanks!

    • Mike Moody says:

      I believe the data series used was from the 6 portfolios formed on size and momentum. I think the equity curve is large cap (above median)/ high momentum (top 30% of momentum ranks).

  13. afan says:

    Interesting. As of 11/17/2010 DWAFX had a substantially negative 3-year alpha. This was considerably worse than a quick check of index funds. “Replacing losers (dead companies) with winners (live companies)” But index funds do not do this. They hold whatever the stocks in the market may be at any time.

    Interesting the reference to French. I do not see his endorsement of relative strength investing. In fact, as long as we are quoting, French, along with his frequent collaborator Fama, says “In short, passive management and passive investing always make sense.”

  14. Mike Moody says:

    DWAFX is the Arrow DWA Balanced Fund, which we sub-advise. It has performed very well since inception when compared to all of the large balanced funds in the industry, including the Vanguard Wellington Fund. You can read more about balanced funds and how they operate here:
    http://systematicrelativestrength.com/2010/11/15/what-is-a-balanced-fund-and-why-should-you-care/

    At the end of the article is a price chart that compares the various balanced funds. You might find it eye-opening. It doesn’t quite support the view of our detractors!

    Ken French has a tremendous amount of valuable data on his website, for both value and momentum portfolios. He acknowledges that momentum is a powerful return factor, as does Eugene Fama. Here is a link to a summary of a Fama and French paper:

    http://www.cxoadvisory.com/big-ideas/fama-and-french-dissect-anomalies/

    The author of the review categorizes all of the return anomalies and concludes: “In summary, some anomalies are stronger and more consistent than others. Momentum appears to be the strongest and most consistent.”

    And, you are incorrect about how index funds operate. For the S&P 500, for example, the stock selections are made by a committee at S&P. They routinely add new companies and drop companies that are performing poorly. You can go to their website and look at the changes yourself. Financial viability is one of their explicit criteria.

    Here is another academic reference that discusses the changes in the S&P 500:

    http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/dissertations/AAI3358959/

    Their conclusion was: “However, if left unchanged the portfolios’ returns obtained by keeping all discretionally deleted firms deviate significantly from the returns of the S& P 500 index over the studied period, October 1989 to December 2007.” Yep, the returns are a lot different if you don’t boot all the junk.

    It’s always interesting to me how we get negative comments from mentions on certain websites, because they believe what they want to believe. None of what I am saying is particularly controversial, even in the academic community. I’ve provided a few links here, but with Google anyone can find this stuff. Many people just choose to pretend it doesn’t exist. To each his own.

  15. […] that buys the actual underlying stocks and holds them generally loses money over time!  An earlier post that I wrote on this topic generated a ton of controversy, although Blackstar’s findings were echoed by DFA.  (There’s no end to the irony in […]

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