How Momentum Based ETFs Work in Portfolio Construction

November 21, 2016

ETF Trends publisher/editor Tom Lydon spoke with Andy Hyer, Client Porfolio Manager, Dorsey, Wright & Associates, a Nasdaq Company, at the Schwab Impact Conference in San Diego that ran Oct. 24-27, 2016.

Hyer discussed how its innovative momentum based ETFs work in portfolio construction.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities, commodities or exchange traded products.  This document and presentation do not purport to be complete descriptions of the securities or commodities, markets or developments to which reference is made.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for Profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. 

 

Some performance information presented is the result of back-tested performance.  Back-tested performance is hypothetical (it does not reflect trading in actual accounts) and is provided for informational purposes to illustrate the effects of the discussed strategy during a specific period.  

 

Back-tested performance results have certain limitations.  Such results do not represent the impact of material economic and market factors might have on an investment advisor’s decision making process if the advisor were actually managing client money.  Back-testing performance also differs from actual performance because it is achieved through retroactive application of a model investment methodology designed with the benefit of hindsight.  Dorsey, Wright & Associates believes the data used in the testing to be from credible, reliable sources, however; Dorsey, Wright & Associates, LLC (collectively with its affiliates and parent company, “DWA”) makes no representation or warranties of any kind as to the accuracy of such data. 

 

The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Relative Strength is a measure of price momentum based on historical price activity.  Relative Strength is not predictive and there is no assurance that forecasts based on relative strength can be relied upon.

 

Unless otherwise stated, the returns of the strategies do not include dividends for stocks or ETFs but do account for distributions in mutual funds.  Returns of the strategies do not include any transaction costs. Investors should have long-term financial objectives. 

 

The information contained herein has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs.  Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this material without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions.  Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources believed to be reliable (“information providers”).  However, such information has not been verified by DWA or the information provider and DWA and the information providers make no representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein.  DWA and the information provider accept no liability to the recipient whatsoever whether in contract, in tort, for negligence, or otherwise for any direct, indirect, consequential, or special loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or its contents or of the recipient relying on any such recommendation or information (except insofar as any statutory liability cannot be excluded).  Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. 

 

Each investor should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks and expenses of any Exchange-Traded Fund (“ETF”) prior to investing. The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in commodity trading can work against you as well as for you. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading in ETFs is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  Before investing in an ETF investors should obtain and carefully read the relevant prospectus and documents the issuer has filed with the SEC. ETF’s may result in the layering of fees as ETF’s impose their own advisory and other fees. To obtain more complete information about the product the documents are publicly available for free via EDGAR on the SEC website (http://www.sec.gov).

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Relative Strength Spread

November 21, 2016

The chart below is the spread between the relative strength leaders and relative strength laggards (top quartile of stocks in our ranks divided by the bottom quartile of stocks in our ranks; universe of U.S. mid and large cap stocks).  When the chart is rising, relative strength leaders are performing better than relative strength laggards.    As of 11/18/16:

spread

The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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Weekly RS Recap

November 21, 2016

The table below shows the performance of a universe of mid and large cap U.S. equities, broken down by relative strength decile and quartile and then compared to the universe return.  Those at the top of the ranks are those stocks which have the best intermediate-term relative strength.  Relative strength strategies buy securities that have strong intermediate-term relative strength and hold them as long as they remain strong.

Last week’s performance (11/14/16 – 11/18/16) is as follows:

ranks

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past or present recommendation.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends, fees, or other expenses.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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Sentiment Readings At Historic Lows

November 21, 2016

Piper Jaffray’s November 2016 issue of The Informed Investor included some great insight on investor sentiment.  In short, we’ve reached bearish sentiment levels that, from a contrarian standpoint, suggests a positive outlook for equities:

The AAII Investor Sentiment survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish and neutral on the stock market for the next six months.  Of particular interest is the bullish percent number that is a solid contrarian indicator and often shows investors’ complacency/fear at important turning points in the market.

From a historical perspective, the lower decile (bottom 10% readings) of the Bullish % numbers resides at 26%.  For the week ending November 2, 2016, the sentiment survey recorded a bullish % reading of 23.6%, which falls in the bottom decile of all observed values since July 1987 (as shown in the table right below).  From a contrarian perspective, the data suggests a positive bias and that the path of least resistance is likely higher.

aaii

From a performance perspective, we went back in history (1987-present) and calculated average and median market returns after such low readings were observed.  We note that the SPX index has been higher over the following 13- and 26-week periods, 74% and 81% of the time respectively.

Additionally, the SPX has recorded positive average returns of 7.7%, six months after weak readings of the Bullish % numbers were observed.

aaii2

Perhaps you are scratching your head as to how this can happen when markets are so close to all-time highs.  A couple guesses as to why this can happen.  First, the election causes politicians to focus on the things that are going wrong (and how they are going to fix them!).  The constant focus on the negative has the effect of, not surprisingly, causing people to overlook what may be going right.  Second, the market has been flatish on a year-over-basis.  When investors don’t get their expected 7-9 percent a year their mood drops (even if we’re not far from all-time highs).

Contrarian indicators such as this work best at the extremes and recent readings in the bottom decile suggest that the coming weeks and months may very well surprise to the upside.

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.

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