How uncommon is it to see the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, The Nasdaq Composite, and the Russell 2000 Indexes all break out to new all-time highs on the same day? Since 1979, there have only been 13 such occurrences, including the most recent occurrence on 11/21/2016. Piper Jaffrey’s December issue of The Informed Investor, included a nice summary the types of market returns we have seen after such “Quadfecta” days.
Following the republican’s ‘trifecta’ sweep during the election, the popular averages posted ‘quadfecta’ highs, representing the rare occurrence when the SPX, DJIA, COMPQ and RUT all close at record highs on the same trading day. The recent November ‘quadfecta’ highs was the first time this has occurred since Dec. 1999. From our perspective, the major averages simultaneously breaking out to new highs confirms broad participation in the rally and provides further evidence to our secular bull market thesis. A historical review of other ‘quadfecta’ highs offers compelling results in regards to expected future returns. Although there are a limited number of occurrences since 1979, the major indices have generated meaningfully returns over the ensuing 26-week and 52-week periods. Additionally, the percent of positive returns has far outpaced negative returns on a historical basis.
The table above highlights various return metrics after quadfecta highs have been reached. As you can see, the SPX, DJIA and COMPQ traded higher 75% of the on a 52-week basis. The RUT was higher 67% of the time after the same time period. Average returns also look healthy across the board with at the major indices averaging at least 8% returns over the next 52-weeks.
When clients ask our thoughts on the markets in 2017, this might be something you consider discussing with them. Strong indications of healthy market breadth have historically tended to be a good sign for future equity returns.
Price performance only, not inclusive of dividends or transaction costs. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.