To add to your confusion

June 23, 2009

If you have experienced significant losses in the stock market over the last year and a half, are already in retirement, and are a little confused about what changes to make to your investments, reading Tara Bernard’s article in the New York Times will insure even greater confusion! Should you become more aggressive to combat the coming inflation, become more defensive to prepare for the possibility of a Japan-like anemic recovery, have a bond position equal to your age, ratchet your stock exposure down by 2% every year once you turn 60, further diversify by owning more real estate, have at least 30% in international equities, wade back into the domestic equity market over the next 2 years so that you avoid doing anything in a hurry, set aside 8-15 years in cash and bonds for food, utilities, and insurance, invest 10% of annual expenses in a bond ladder with equal amounts due every six months, purchase an immediate annuity…? Each financial planner interviewed for that article had a different opinion.

With so many investors reading articles like that in an attempt to stay informed it is no wonder so many are flat out confused.

Thank goodness for global tactical asset allocation strategies, like our Global Macro strategy, which provide a clear framework for allocating among a broad range of asset classes. Come what may, Global Macro is designed to be flexible enough to systematically adapt.

Click here for disclosures from Dorsey Wright Money Management.


Inside Today’s Performance

June 23, 2009

It was a unremarkable day for stocks today. Not much action at all. In terms of RS performance, both the highest and lowest deciles didn’t fare as well as the universe average. The best performance came from the lower ranked stocks, but not from the lowest ranked stocks (if that makes any sense).

A lot of the poor performance in the top decile RS stocks came from the restaurant group. I checked a couple of the names for a news item, but didn’t find anything that would usually cause such a large amount of underperformance from an entire group. CAKE, BOBE, DRI, EAT, and CMG were all down substantially more than the market today. When you look at the performance of the top 3 deciles for today you can see that in other areas the performance of high RS stocks was actually stronger than it looks.


Most Investors are Killing Themselves in ETFs

June 23, 2009

In this interesting article from Index Universe, John Bogle points out that investors are not acting in their own best interests when they trade ETFs. First, he phrases it as ETFs aren’t in the best interests of investors. Then he amends it to say that really investors aren’t acting in their own best interests.

In truth, these results, which show ETF investor results lagging mutual fund investor results, have nothing to do with the vehicle and everything to do with investor time horizons and emotional trading. ETFs are simply easier to trade, which allows people to either fine tune their entries and exits, or to completely muck it up.

The evidence is largely in favor of the “muck it up” theory. I’m sure investors are trying to do better by trading, but they are objectively making their results worse. This is the result of trading emotionally and not having a systematic method for executing your plan.