Maybe This is Why Warren Buffett is Always So Jovial

July 7, 2010

It turns out that money can buy happiness.  Well, maybe not directly–but researchers were surprised when they examined data from a Gallup survey.  According to a Wall Street Journal synopsis of the results:

A new analysis of Gallup World Poll data, surveying 136,000 people across 132 nations from 2005 to 2006, suggests that income is much more highly correlated to happiness (or at least a form of it) than previously thought.

Even some experts in behavioral finance were surprised:

What was interesting about the study was how universal the desire for financial success was across the world. “People in Togo and Denmark have the same idea of what a good life is, and a lot of that has to do with money and material prosperity,” Daniel Kahneman, professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University, told the Washington Post. “That was unexpected.”

To me, it’s not so surprising.  If you work in the financial services field, you see firsthand how hard people strive to achieve financial success for themselves and their families.  When they fail, they are miserable.

Warren Buffett, on the other hand, has a lot to be happy about.  He has lifelong buddies (Charlie Munger), new friends (Bill Gates),  influence, and financial security.  Although he might be less happy if his friends and influence went away, he probably wouldn’t be miserable because he would still have financial security, Cherry Coke, and the t-bones at Gorat’s.

Source: Yahoo! News

Financial security is a much more important financial good than people give it credit for.  Like most quantities, it seems to be relative.  A retired executive might feel pinched or deprived at a different level of retirement income than a retired janitor, for example.  This psychological insight led some clever financial service professional in the hazy past to popularize the “70% of income in retirement” rule of thumb, which is completely relative.  There’s probably a paper waiting to be written on the S-curve of satisfaction with relative retirement income levels–above (and below) certain thresholds, satisfaction is probably reliably high (or low).  In between, there may be a steep incline, where rising assets equate with rising happiness.  At this point in the curve–where most of us are–the impact of good or bad financial advice can be huge.

Perhaps financial advisors can’t do much about the current worldwide financial malaise, but they certainly have the ability to influence and improve their clients’ finances through the encouragement of savings and the pursuit of sensible investment policies.


Your Money or Your Life

June 23, 2010

This used to be just a cliche that muggers would use when relieving you of your wallet.  Apparently Americans headed toward retirement feel like they are being mugged as well.  According to an Allianz Life Insurance study cited in Financial Planning magazine,

…more respondents between the ages of 44 and 49 say they fear outliving their assets more than they fear death (77% versus 23%).

In other words, an overwhelming majority consider running out of money a fate worse than death.  Saving and investing must be far worse than death because Americans really don’t want to do that.


Advice From a Hedge Fund Manager

June 12, 2010

 A faux radio call-in show where a few listeners ask financial questions to an out-of-touch hedge fund manager.  You can read the transcript, but the audio is much funnier.  Sort of.


Coffee Spill at BP Headquarters

June 11, 2010

A comedy video imagines what happens when BP executives spill their coffee at a meeting, found on CNBC.com.  Black humor, to be sure.


Hobo Investing

May 26, 2010

Investing, at its core, is a simple process.  You need to determine if the train is going north or south, or just sitting on a track siding doing nothing.  Once you’ve found a train going north, you need only to hop aboard.  If the train starts to go south, you need to jump off.

The concept is simple, but sometimes investors make the execution more complicated.  For us, relative strength and trend following provide the tools and methodology to find the northbound trains.  The same tools and methodology can be used to tell you when the switch engine has come along and started to move the train south.

The problems happen when investors deviate from the simple goal-directed hobo mentality and get too clever for their own good.  Can you imagine how irrational some investor behavior must look to a hobo?  Here are the top six dysfunctional hobo sayings:

1. I wanted to go north, so I hopped on an out-of-favor southbound train, hoping it would go north eventually.  (value hobo)

2. I got on a northbound train, but it only went north a few miles.  A switch engine came along and started to take my boxcar south.  How embarrassing!  This train owes me.  I’m not getting off.  (ego-attached hobo)

3. There are so many trains going north.  I want to hop on one eventually, but I’m afraid it will go south right after I get on it.  (failure to launch hobo)

4.  This northbound train is picking up speed.  I’d better get off.  (premature ejection hobo)

5. I want to go north, but my train pulled on to a siding and stopped.  Maybe I’ll just sit here and see what happens.  (buy-and-hold hobo)

6. There are so many trains going north without me.  Eventually they will all have to go south, and then I’ll have my revenge!  (bitter hobo with economics background)

If you want to go north, get on a northbound train.  KISS really applies here.  On our good days, we all know this, but it’s so easy to forget.


Net Worth is a Worthwhile Obsession

May 19, 2010

Ron Lieber wrote an interesting article in the New York Times about a number of websites that allow you to anonymously track and post your net worth and compare it with others in similar circumstances.  Mr. Lieber didn’t say explicitly what he thought about this new trend in social networking, but the title to the article, “Net Worth Obsession,” gives a clue.  A number of pundits were quoted decrying the trend:

But does our almost irresistible urge to rank ourselves against others based on any available data serve as a source of inspiration? Or does it lead to endless striving in search of some ever-elusive achievement? “I think this is a profound problem, this aspect of humans in the West,” said Andrew Oswald, a professor of behavioral science at the Warwick Business School in England. “We’re now extraordinarily rich by almost any standard of human history. But because we are creatures of comparison, it’s harder to get happier and happier.”

It’s certainly possible to pay too much attention to your net worth and ignore your happiness, but most of the actual site participants had very positive things to say.  Perhaps there is something redeeming in tracking assets minus debts!  One user says:

Initially, the idea of laying herself bare on a blog and on NetworthIQ caused a lot of anxiety. “You’re saying I have a secret and here it is for everyone to see,” she says. “But once it’s out there, and especially now that it’s not just a flat line saying ‘negative $23,000,’ and it is moving up a little bit, there’s a sense of pride and accomplishment that goes along with that. I know people are visiting, and it makes me want to pay something else off so I can post another entry that’s something good.” She’s currently putting a third of her monthly take-home pay from her job as a benefits analyst toward debt payments.

All of this has led to some odd reversals in her life. She looks forward to getting her bills in the mail, for instance, because it means it’s time to update her total debt. “Which might be a little bit sick,” she said. “But I know it’s lower than the last month. I know it for a fact.”

Grant often wonders about the people who are far ahead of her in the NetworthIQ standings. Did they get lucky? Are they lottery winners? Or did they get smart about money before she did? She tries not to beat herself up over it. “For people with the same income as me but higher net worth, it tells me that I can get there, too. It just takes discipline,” she says. “I know it has only been a couple of months now, but I kind of feel like I’ve made a life change.”

In other words, most of the participants found tracking their net worth to be motivational.  This is something that I have noticed repeatedly with real clients over the past 25 years.  The clients who track their net worth always do way, way better than clients who have only a vague idea of their finances.  The difference is so dramatic that I routinely suggest the practice to clients.  Before there were social networking websites for net worth, there were spreadsheets.  As far as I know, none of my clients have ever shared their information with anyone but their financial advisor, but like most things, just the fact that it is being tracked makes them pay attention to it.  Most clients do not see updating their spreadsheet each month or each quarter as a joyless activity–they are instead motivated to keep that number moving north.

If competing with your net worth on a social networking website helps push you to save and invest, well, more power to you.  One person interviewed in the New York Times article makes this same point:

She admits that some of her pleasure is fueled as much by competition as self-satisfaction. “I’m not that far off from the person right above me” on the NetworthIQ list, she says. “I can probably catch them this month. And maybe next month I can get to the next one.”

It’s not as if people don’t notice their socioeconomic status anyway.  Even Mr. Osvald, who was quoted earlier in the article lamenting the “profound problem” with humans admits that comparison is actually just human nature:

Oswald, the professor of behavioral science, says the craving for comparison may be rooted in our biology. “It’s easier said than done to break through two million years of evolution,” he says. “A million years ago, you could watch what others were doing and mimic that to get food and resources. Or if you were high up the monkey pack, you could get the best mates.”

Let’s face it: everyone wants to be high up in the monkey pack.  Perhaps we’re not all members of the same monkey pack, but humans always and everywhere are in competition for resources.  Consequently, social and economic signifiers are embedded in everything from the car you drive, the sneakers you wear, the sports you enjoy (polo anyone?), the bling and tats you do (or do not) have.  We have elaborate social ways of interpreting these signifiers:  the same Bentley might be seen as appropriate if the owner comes from ”old money,” but tacky if the owner is “nouveaux riche.”  Most product marketing is based more on the branding–the social signifier–than on the actual product features.

“Keeping up with the Joneses” will always be with us.  Ultimately, I think tracking net worth is a much healthier way of keeping up with the Joneses than accumulating possessions and racking up consumer debt.  After all, most of our personal and national fiscal problems are caused from too much spending and not enough savings and investment.  Tracking your net worth, I suspect, is actually aspirational and motivational rather than pathological.  Instead of sucking the fun out of life, clients end up bonding with their grandkids for the summer at the beach condo they wouldn’t otherwise have had.  Pundits may worry about it, but the public seems to find it practical and valuable.


Imaginary Memo: Yesterday’s Selloff

May 7, 2010
MEMO 
  
To: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
  
Lay off, guys.  We can do this anytime we want to.
  
Regards,
  
Goldman Sachs
 
 
 
 
 
 
Just kidding, of course.  It’s actually somewhat ridiculous the way Congress is trying to demonize the industry to push through legislation.  Courtesy of JC.

Good News if You Like the Smell of Grease

May 6, 2010

Amazingly, this product is apparently sold out!  My hat is off to the incredible ingenuity of American consumer marketing professionals everywhere.


Icelandic Volcano Humor

April 22, 2010

On Wall Street, even natural disasters are turned into fodder for jokes.  CNBC.com has a cute article on a few of the quips.


Why No One Pays Attention to Economists

April 16, 2010

This article from Time Magazine is priceless.  Two econ professors are suggesting that young people use 2-1 leverage to buy stocks for their long time horizon retirement portfolios.  Apparently their Monte Carlo simulation didn’t include all of the margin calls you would get during every drawdown.  Long on IQ perhaps, but short on common sense.


Even Your Happiness is Relative

March 25, 2010

Relative strength really is everywhere!  If you don’t believe us, take a look at the Wealth Report at the Wall Street Journal.  They discuss research from professors who were puzzling over the fact that people tended not to be any happier even though they were making more money, although generally money tends to enhance happiness.  Why did that happen?

…the researchers decided to dig deeper into what is called the “reference-income hypothesis,” a fancy way of saying that wealth is relative. If an entire country gets richer at the same time, individuals wouldn’t necessarily feel wealthier, since their relative positions in society hadn’t changed.

It turns out that your happiness hinges much more on your relative position than on your absolute position on the income scale.  This explains how you can be miserable even on a high income if your idiot brother-in-law makes more money than you.  The people in your comparison set are what counts.

…[researchers] found that the person’s rank within the comparison set was a stronger predictor of happiness than absolute wealth. “If absolute income matters, as we increased our income, everybody should get happier at a national level, but we don’t seem to,” Mr. Boyce said. “So what we are showing is that in terms of life satisfaction, rank is a better predictor than absolute wealth.”

Source: www.despair.com


Economics in One Picture

March 9, 2010

From Greg Mankiw’s blog, economics in one picture.  This nicely captures the principle of supply and demand!


John Bogle is Missing!

March 2, 2010

There is an absolutely hilarious round of letters and investment challenges going around, started by a challege from Roger Schreiner of Schreiner Capital Management to John Bogle.  It’s been 193 days and John Bogle has yet to accept. 

David Loeper from Wealthcare Capital Management responded in a Letter to the Editor and the accusations are flying.  (There’s a link to the original challenge and Loeper’s response in the article.)

Everyone has an ax to grind and the challenges are somewhat tilted, but it’s been a great excuse for Mr. Schreiner to skewer passive investing.

Our investment strategy is to own stocks when the market is strong and sell them when the market is weak.  By comparison, the investment process (if you can call it that) of the passive investor is embarrassingly simple: hope.

I’m sure this will not end the active versus passive debate, but it has been good for some entertainment.


Reverse Psychology

February 26, 2010

This just in: People do the opposite of what you tell them.

Researchers at the University of Indiana released the results of a study yesterday, which examined the effects of shame and guilt-inducing public service announcements.  Specifically, the researchers studied ads which promoted responsible alcoholic consumption by way of illustrating the  harmful consequences of over-drinking.  By highlighting side effects like blackouts and car accidents, viewers of the ads were made to feel ashamed and guilty for indulging in those behaviors.

What’s the problem with that?  Unwittingly, the ads caused people who are already dealing with those problems to drink even more.

Findings show such messages are too difficult to process among viewers already experiencing these emotions – for example, those who already have alcohol-related transgressions.

 

So not only do the ads not really work, they also exacerbate the situation for people who already have a problem.

Why do we care?  Because this same kind of shame-inducing message could be leading retail investors to continue to do exactly what is hurting them in the first place.  The human brain, when confronted with the horrors of reality, sets up a foiling mechanism to cope with the bright light of truth.

Advisor: You know, the research proves without a doubt that retail investors cannot time the market.  You would be well-served by adopting a proven strategy and sitting tight for the long-term.

Client: Well that sure doesn’t sound like me!  Hey this fund is down on the year, let’s find a new one.  Next!

So not only does the client have a major problem to begin with, when you show them the error of their ways, it forces the client down a rabbit-hole of denial.  It’s a vicious cycle.

We’ve talked about this type of behavior before.

Maybe we should try reverse psychology and suggest that clients churn their portfolio at every whim?

[Editor's note: J.P. does not have teenagers, or he would already know people do the opposite of what you tell them!]


Zut Alors!

February 19, 2010

If you need another reason to hate the French, besides envy of their excellent cuisine, it turns out that a bevy of winemakers were fined and given suspended sentences for foisting cheap, lousy wine on American consumers and charging them premium prices for it.

On the other hand, it shows that cognitive biases are everywhere.  Neither the American company the wine was shipped to nor consumers drinking it ever complained! Because the wine was labeled as premium pinot noir, wine enthusiasts apparently thought it tasted great.  In fact, it turns out that wine drinkers think expensive wine tastes better, even when you trick them and give them two glasses of wine from the same bottle.

This behavior is not unknown in the stock market, where cognitive biases run unbridled down Wall Street.  Ten years ago, everyone was in love with General Electic.  It, too, was high-priced and tasted great.  Ten years later, GE is considered cheap swill that leaves a bitter taste in the mouths of investors.

The moral of the story is that you can’t fall in love with your stocks or your wine.  You have to like it on its own merits.  In the case of our Systematic RS accounts, we like a stock only as long as it has high relative strength.  When it becomes weaker and drops in its ranking–indicating that other, stronger stocks are available–we sell it and move on to a better class of grape.  (We’ve been known to break a bottle here and there, but the idea is to adapt as tastes change.)  In this way, we strive to keep our wine cellar stocked with the best vintages all the time.


Hilarious Clip of NFL Players at the Super Bowl

February 5, 2010

CNBC’s Darren Rovell went around Miami quizzing Colts and Saints on the Economy (as reported at The Business Insider.) My favorite line: After finding out the unemployment rate is 10%, Colts linebacker Cody Glenn exclaimed “What’s everybody crying about?”


Running Through the Dynamite Factory

January 27, 2010

I had to read this article twice—and I still couldn’t believe what I was reading.  According to the Wall Street Journal, the State of Wisconsin Investment Board has approved a plan to leverage their bond portfolio to boost their state pension performance. 

The strategy calls for leveraging pension funds’ safest asset—government or other high-grade bonds—while reducing exposure to stocks.

Wow.  That sounds like a great idea.  And I was concerned about retail investors piling into bonds at the possible bottom of the interest rate cycle.

Wilshire Consulting, which advises pension funds on investments, says leverage helps the funds meet their long-term return targets without relying too heavily on volatile stocks, or tying up their money for long stretches in private investments.

Of course no one wants to rely on volatile stock returns—so just leverage your bonds to make them more volatile!  I’m pretty sure this will work out well.  As the old saying goes, “If you run through the dynamite factory with a match, you might live, but you’re still an idiot.”


Politics and the Economy–2009 Year in Review

January 11, 2010

The year in review from noted pundit Dave Barry.  Well, pundit is pushing it.  But it is pretty funny.  There’ll be at least one thing that will make you laugh out loud.


Pay My Debts

January 7, 2010

Kuwait must have very constituent-friendly legislators.  Apparently their populace is tired of paying off their consumer credit, so the legislature has introduced a bill to have the government reschedule everyone’s debts.  On the other hand, this might be cheaper than having the government pay off the debts of the entire banking system like the U.S. did!


Dear Santa

December 24, 2009

[As it is of general interest this time of year, we opted to include one of our client letters, with the client's permission, of course.  Although we have many notable clients, this particular client is both unique and well-known.  My comments are in brackets.]

Annual Managed Account Review for the Trustees of North Pole Inc. and Elf Ltd. Pension Plan

Dear Nick,                                 [we're on a first name basis]

As always, we appreciate your business.  It’s quite a feather in our cap to have a client such as yourself.  It was great to talk to you periodically this year [unlisted number, sorry], especially since you were always of good cheer in what was quite a turbulent year in the financial markets.

Probably no one else on the planet has as good a view of the global recession as you and your elves.  I was surprised to find out that even business at the North Pole was affected when you mentioned to me that you had to cut back the reindeer, except for Rudolph, to seasonal employment and reduce their hourly earnings this year.  [This year was just tough all around--when there is a bull market in coal, I can tell there were a lot of bad little boys and girls.  Indicted politicians and Bernie Madoff come to mind.]   As you know, consumer spending is still weak, but there are some very hopeful signs for the market and economy in 2010.

In terms of the economy, the yield curve is very steep right now.  The market is suggesting that economic growth next year could surprise on the upside.  That might provide a nice lift for the market as well.

The best sign of all, though, particularly for your pension plan is–finally!–an indication that relative strength could be returning to favor as a return factor in 2010.  The spread between the leaders and laggards had been very weak for most of the year, but has now flattened out.  Very recently, there are even signs that the relative strength spread could be moving in a favorable direction once again.  We expect that most investors will not notice or take advantage of the trend until it is in place for a year or so, which is part of the reason we appreciate your patience and steadfast good cheer.  It’s quite possible that you and the elves will have a lot to celebrate next holiday season.  [And we hope the reindeer will be back at work full-time.]

Say hello to Mrs. Claus for us, and good luck with your upcoming journey.

Yours truly,

Dorsey, Wright Money Management


Unlikely Converts to Capitalism

December 18, 2009

Everyone in China is getting in on the new fad: capitalism.  The Shaolin monks are going public.  I didn’t even know they had a CEO or had bikini pageants.


Santa in Trouble For Trade Infractions

December 18, 2009

What good is Christmas if Santa can’t get in trouble with the World Trade Organization?


Data Obsession

December 15, 2009

Wow.  We thought we were data geeks…  Wired Science reports that some parents are taking baby development tracking to the extreme.

With the help of the Trixie Tracker website, they know they’ve changed exactly 7,367 diapers for their three-year-old son and 969 for their three-month-old daughter. They also have a graph of precisely how many minutes each of their children slept on nearly every day since birth. During their daughter’s first month, the data shows she averaged 15 hours of sleep a day, which is two hours more than her brother at the same age and well above average for other Trixie Tracker babies.


Shiver Me Timbers!

December 1, 2009

Pirates set up an exchange.   In a nod to the power of capitalism to organize and fund economic growth, 72 “maritime companies” are available for investors to get involved with.

Apparently there is a shortage of other viable investment opportunities around the horn of Africa.    I would hate to run afoul of a “regulator” on that exchange.


Eat Your Heart Out, Roubini

November 23, 2009

A sign making its way into offices around the world. Very appropriate.

From NYT