Cheeseburger in Paradise

July 21, 2009

Relative strength is simply the measurement of an item or items relative to a common benchmark. One of the more tasty applications of relative strength is the Economist’s Big Mac Index. In short, this index compares the price of a Big Mac (in US$ equivalent) in various foreign countries to the price of a Big Mac here in the United States.

As the most recent article points out, the lowest relative prices for Big Macs are in Asia and the highest are in Europe. It is not surprising that China, where the Big Mac is $1.83, is exporting so many other goods to us here in the U.S. where the same burger goes for $3.57. The Economist updates their burger index each quarter and it will be interesting to see how the prices change as the world continues to deal with the tumultuous global economy.

Local has become global—and vice versa. It makes sense to consider a tactical investment approach that can cope with new environments.


Uncharted Waters

July 21, 2009

Apparently for the first time since sometime in the Truman Administration, Americans actually paid down household debt last quarter. Of course the total debt load is still growing, no doubt due to the interest expense, but the turnaround has been shocking for economists. Goldman’s chief U.S. economist, Jan Hatzius is quoted in the article as saying “We’ve never seen a pullback like this.”

The U.S. consumer accounts for approximately 17% of world GDP and U.S. consumers are cutting back spending and trying to live within their means for a change. Unless there is big offsetting spending from somewhere else, profit growth is not going to come from revenue growth. If it is uncharted territory for economists, it’s very likely their forecasts will be a long way off the mark too. It seems safer to use an adaptive, systematic method like relative strength to deal with the markets than hope all the gurus guess correctly.


Dangerous Profession

July 21, 2009

Being a financial advisor is a dangerous profession!