Gentlemen Prefer Bonds

August 25, 2009

Although flows into equity funds have picked up recently, flows into bond funds are currently five times higher than flows into stock funds. (The link to the graphic is here.)

Many investors have apparently given up on the stock market and now they are all about income. This is an interesting proposition with $11.7 trillion in U.S. debt outstanding and no clear way to pay it back. The bonds with the most income, high-yield corporates, are expected to have rapidly rising default rates.

Maybe nothing bad will happen to all of the income seekers, although I would point out that more money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun. At the very least, it might be a positive sign for the equity markets in a contrary opinion sort of way.

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Disconnect

August 25, 2009

Even though Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac owe the government nearly $100 billion and must pay massive dividends each year to the U.S. Treasury, investors are piling in. FRE is up 181% and FNM is up 124% this year (1/1/09 – 8/24/09).

As the Washington Post points out, there is not much that is rational about that. “It’s very hard to come up with scenarios where they’re worth any money,” Bose George, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said of Fannie and Freddie.

These are just a couple of the many examples of the disconnect that frequently exists between stock prices and company fundamentals.

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IFTA Conference

August 25, 2009

There is a conference for professional technical analysts from all over the world being held in Chicago from October 8th-10th . It is sponsored by the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA), but it is open to anyone who is interested in technical analysis and will be a great opportunity to learn about some of the latest developments in the field. Conferences like this are also good for getting to know other professionals in the field. Please see http://www.ifta2009.com for more conference details.

Dorsey, Wright has no connection, commercial or otherwise, with IFTA. I just thought the conference might be of interest to some of our readers.

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