10 Issues That We Don’t Have

February 11, 2010

Brett Steenbarger lists the top ten reason that traders lose their discipline:

Losing discipline is not a trading problem; it is the common result of a number of trading-related problems. Here are the most common sources of loss of discipline, culled from my work with traders:

10- Environmental distractions and boredom cause a lack of focus;

9- Fatigue and mental overload create a loss of concentration;

8- Overconfidence follows a string of successes;

7- Unwillingness to accept losses, leading to alterations of trade plans after the trade has gone into the red;

6- Loss of confidence in one’s trading plan/strategy because it has not been adequately tested and battle-tested;

5- Personality traits that lead to impulsivity and low frustration tolerance in stressful situations;

4- Situational performance pressures, such as trading slumps and increased personal expenses, that change how traders trade (putting P/L ahead of making good trades);

3- Trading positions that are excessive for the account size, created exaggerated P/L swings and emotional reactions;

2- Not having a clearly defined trading plan/strategy in the first place;

1- Trading a time frame, style, or market that does not match your talents, skills, risk tolerance, and personality.

Emotions are a performance and discipline killer. The difference in stress levels between managing money based on systematic models and using manager discretion is immense! You can spend a lifetime trying to make yourself immune to emotions (not going to happen while you are still breathing) or you can rely on systematic models. Systematic models have the benefit of never getting tired, upset, nervous, or bored. Furthermore, research in a variety of fields confirms the performance advantage of systematic models.


Getting Torched By Expert Opinion

February 11, 2010

Barry Ritholtz has posted a 5 minute clip of some of Ben Bernanke’s public comments between 2005-2007 on the housing market and the broader economy. The point of me posting this is not to say that Bernanke is a complete moron because I have little doubt that he is one of the brightest financial minds in the country. However, talk about being dead wrong! If you relied on these opinions in order to make investment decisions, you likely got torched. If you can’t rely on expert opinion when making investment decisions, then what options do you have?

This highlights the value of trend-following systems. Trend following requires zero reliance on expert opinion; it simply allows the investor to adapt to whatever trends the market offers, whether or not experts expected things to play out in a given way. With trend following, you’ll have plenty of losing trades, but you’ll also avoid sitting in losing trades for long periods of time. Furthermore, systematic trend-following has an excellent track record (see here and here.) Trend following allows you to cut your losses short and to hold on to your winners. Frequently, the strongest trends end up being very different from what even the brightest experts predicted.


Fund Flows

February 11, 2010

The Investment Company Institute is the national association of U.S. investment companies, including mutual funds, closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and unit investment trusts (UITs). Members of ICI manage total assets of $11.82 trillion and serve nearly 90 million shareholders. Flow estimates are derived from data collected covering more than 95 percent of industry assets and are adjusted to represent industry totals.

Net fund flows are shown in the table below:

There were big inflows for taxable bonds and big outflows for U.S. equities for the week ending February 3.