Consumer Confidence

February 24, 2010

Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. After all of the hullabaloo yesterday about consumer confidence, Bespoke Investments had a nice piece on what has happened in the past after large drops in consumer confidence. Their chart is reproduced below. (For a link to the entire article, click here.)

Source: Bespoke Investments

Suffice it to say that consumers tend to panic near the lows, not at the highs. This is a nice piece of data visualization and really makes it clear that consumer confidence is a lagging indicator, not a leading one.


High RS Diffusion Index

February 24, 2010

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.) As of 2/23/10.

The 10-day moving average of this indicator is 53% and the one-day reading is 59%. This oscillator has shown the tendency to remain overbought for extended periods of time, while oversold measures tend to be much more abrupt.