Even Your Happiness is Relative

March 25, 2010

Relative strength really is everywhere! If you don’t believe us, take a look at the Wealth Report at the Wall Street Journal. They discuss research from professors who were puzzling over the fact that people tended not to be any happier even though they were making more money, although generally money tends to enhance happiness. Why did that happen?

…the researchers decided to dig deeper into what is called the “reference-income hypothesis,” a fancy way of saying that wealth is relative. If an entire country gets richer at the same time, individuals wouldn’t necessarily feel wealthier, since their relative positions in society hadn’t changed.

It turns out that your happiness hinges much more on your relative position than on your absolute position on the income scale. This explains how you can be miserable even on a high income if your idiot brother-in-law makes more money than you. The people in your comparison set are what counts.

…[researchers] found that the person’s rank within the comparison set was a stronger predictor of happiness than absolute wealth. “If absolute income matters, as we increased our income, everybody should get happier at a national level, but we don’t seem to,” Mr. Boyce said. “So what we are showing is that in terms of life satisfaction, rank is a better predictor than absolute wealth.”

Source: www.despair.com


Fund Flows

March 25, 2010

The Investment Company Institute is the national association of U.S. investment companies, including mutual funds, closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and unit investment trusts (UITs). Members of ICI manage total assets of $11.82 trillion and serve nearly 90 million shareholders. Flow estimates are derived from data collected covering more than 95 percent of industry assets and are adjusted to represent industry totals.

Net fund flows are shown in the table below:

Last week we saw US equity flows rise off the bottom of the ranks; they held their ground this week in the middle of the pack. Taxable bonds attracted even more new money in the week ending 3/17/2010.


The Big Disconnect

March 25, 2010

Americans love to worry about the economy. It seems like there is always something going wrong, or about to go wrong. There’s one big problem with focusing on the economy-it’s not always very connected with the stock market, or at least not in the way most investors think it is.

Investors seem to have the belief that they can forecast the stock market from watching the economy. According to an article on Bloomberg, most Americans missed the run in the market last year. Only 30% of investors said their portfolio gained value last year, a problem which seems directly connected to the fact that two-thirds of investors feel the economy is getting worse, not better. Their economic views apparently led them to stay out of the market and as a result 70% of them missed the best year in the last decade.

What investors are failing to recognize is that the stock market trades on expectations, not current reality. The stock market is a leading indicator of the economy, not the other way around. In point of fact, the S&P 500 Index is one of the components of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators-and statistically the most reliable of the components. Trying to forecast the market by looking at the economy is not only impossible, it’s ass-backwards.