Dorsey Wright Sentiment Survey 3/26/10

March 26, 2010

Here we have Round Two of the Dorsey, Wright Sentiment Survey, the first third-party sentiment poll. As you know, when individuals self-report, they are always taller and more beautiful than when outside observers report their perceptions! Instead of asking individual investors to self-report whether they are bullish or bearish, we’d like financial advisors to weigh in and report on the actual behavior of clients. It’s two simple questions and will take no more than 20 seconds of your time. We’ll construct indicators from the data and report the results regularly on our blog–but we need your help to get a large statistical sample!

Contribute to the greater good! You WILL NOT be directed to another page by clicking the survey. It’s painless, we promise.


The Clown Says It’s Undervalued

March 26, 2010

The Economist has once again published its “Big Mac Index“. As some long-time readers may recall, this index is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity, in which exchange rates should equalize the price of a basket of goods across countries.

The index shows that the Big Mac that costs $3.58 in the U. S. would cost $6.16 in Switzerland and $6.87 in Norway. This suggests that their currencies are overvalued relative to the U. S. dollar. On the other end of the valuation spectrum, a Big Mac in China costs $1.83, suggesting that the yuan is 49% below its fair-value benchmark with the dollar.

source: The Economist. Click to enlarge.


Sector & Capitalization Performance

March 26, 2010

The chart below shows performance of US sectors and capitalizations over the trailing 12, 6, and 1 month(s). Relative strength strategies buy securities that have strong intermediate-term relative strength and hold them as long as they remain strong. Performance updated through 3/25/2010.


Another Way to Blow Up Your Bond Fund: Derivatives

March 26, 2010

Given recent investor behavior, we’ve had concerns about bonds and bond funds. Investors have been heavy buyers of this category for months and months. It’s led investors to miss most of the run in the stock market over the past year, and in past instances of heavy buying in one fund category, retail investors have not exactly covered themselves in glory.

It doesn’t make me feel any better that some of the fixed income baskets in our Global Macro strategy are currently among the weakest asset classes. Now this article from Morningstar points out that many bond funds are using derivatives once again. The last go-round didn’t work out very well either.


I Want to Buy Losers

March 26, 2010

I cringe every time I read an article by a value investor that says something like, “You should buy stocks that are on sale, just like you buy [pick your consumer item] on sale.” In the financial markets that can be dangerous.

In a great essay titled, I Want to Buy Losers, Clay Allen of Market Dynamics discusses the problems with this analogy. [You've got to read the whole essay to really appreciate it.]

Many investors buy stocks the way many consumers buy paper towels or any other staple. They are attracted to a sale and loss leaders are a proven method for a retailer to increase the traffic in their store. The value of the item is well known and a sale price gets the attention of potential buyers.

Mr. Allen explains brilliantly and succinctly why this analogy is bunk:

But stocks are not like paper towels. Paper towels can be used to satisfy a need and this is what gives the item its value to the consumer. What gives a stock its value? A stock cannot be used to satisfy a need or accomplish a task. The value of a stock is derived from the financial performance of the company, either actual or expected. The fact that the stock is down in price is usually a sure sign that the financial performance of the company is declining.

…if the value of the stock was constant, then buying bargain stocks would be the correct way to invest in stocks. But stock values are constantly changing as business conditions change for the company and the expectations of investors change.

All in all, it seems to me that relative strength often more closely reflects what the expectations of investors are-and the expectations are what counts. Let’s face it: strong stocks are usually strong because business conditions or fundamentals are good, and weak stocks are usually weak for a reason.