Podcast #4 Momentum is Here to Stay

May 12, 2010

5/12/10

Podcast #4 Momentum is Here to Stay

Mike Moody and Andy Hyer discuss the following provocative statement by Abnormal Returns in their 5/10/10 post The Momentum Paradox:

All that being said, momentum remains a paradox. Momentum is easily calculated and widely disseminated. It is hard to believe that momentum strategies would continue to outperform in that sort of environment. However, to-date they have. So much so, that academia and practitioners alike recognize it as a return factor.

Will this momentum era end at some point? Maybe. The construction of momentum indices might lead to its eventual demise. In the meantime investors of all stripes need to take note of momentum in designing their approach to the markets.


High RS Diffusion Index

May 12, 2010

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.) As of 5/11/10.

The 10-day moving average of this indicator is 64% and the one-day reading is 55%. This indicator is rebounding from a single-day low of 22% on 5/7/10. Dips in this indicator have often provided good opportunities to add money to relative strength strategies.