One Thing You Can Count On

May 25, 2010

One of the very few things you can count on in the investment world is that everything will change. Timeless investment truths will become relics. Guidelines that were infallible in the past will suddenly go wrong. Human nature may not change much, but the market itself is a constantly evolving organism. One of the biggest casualties of change is correlation. There are really two problems with correlation.

1. Correlation is often confused with causality. Big mistake. Just because something is related does not mean it has anything to do with the cause. For example, drinking milk is not the cause of heroin addiction, even if you can prove that all heroin addicts drank milk as children.

2. Correlations are unstable. This causes all sorts of problems in mean optimization and strategic asset allocation. The best example I have seen of this recently is a fantastic chart from Bespoke Investment Group that shows a rolling 6-month correlation between the dollar and the S&P 500. Over a ten-year period, the correlation moves from virtually +1.0 to -1.0, not to mention everywhere in between!

Courtesy: Bespoke Investment Group

Shocking isn’t it? Yet this is the one thing you can count on-that everything will change. To me, this is one of the strongest arguments for an adaptive method that adjusts systematically to new conditions. Although it is probably not the only way to go about it, relative strength is a good engine to use for models because it is highly adaptive, robust, and deals well with multi-asset portfolios, which are more and more becoming the norm.


Two Approaches to Retirement Income

May 25, 2010

Research Magazine has a nice piece on building retirement income portfolios. If you have clients that are aging baby boomers-and most of you do-or you are, like me, an aging baby boomer yourself, you’ll recognize that lots of people are suddenly thinking about this topic.

The two approaches to retirement income that are discussed are the total return approach and the investment pool approach, sometimes called the bucket approach.

Courtesy: Research Magazine

The graphic highlights the differences between the two approaches, although the article points out that advisors are trying to achieve the same end result:

While advisors may differ in the philosophy they follow for retirement clients, there are consistent elements among best-practice advisors that cut across both approaches. These common elements include:

- Generating an annual income or cash flow target of between 3 percent and 6 percent;

- Managing portfolios to support spending on essential needs such as housing, healthcare and other daily living expenses while also looking to maintain long-term purchasing power in light of potential inflationary pressures;

- Seeking to produce competitive returns for the client within agreed-upon risk parameters, but not striving for consistent above-average returns or outperforming market benchmarks;

- Focusing on broad diversification in asset classes, relying on vehicles they are highly familiar with, such as mutual funds, ETFs, individual securities, separately managed accounts and annuities;

- Emphasizing the process of constructing portfolios rather than the products or solutions available.

So which approach is best? The article doesn’t take a position on that question, but I think two things should be kept in mind when trying to decide.

1. There is no necessary functional difference at all between the two approaches. In other words, an investment pool approach with six equal 5-year buckets allocated progressively to Treasury bills, short-term bonds, intermediate-term bonds, large-cap value stocks, large-cap growth stocks, and emerging market equities is absolutely the same thing as a 50/50 balanced portfolio that uses the same asset classes.

2. As a result, the only thing that matters is which approach works best psychologically for the client. If the portfolios are functionally the same, ideally we should gravitate to whatever will help the client achieve their income and investment growth goals. Twenty years ago, the total return approach was dominant-and it still makes perfect sense from a financial point of view. However, over the last decade or so, the rise of behavioral finance has generated research that focuses on ways to nudge clients into more productive investment behaviors. There seems to be an innate tendency of humans to compartmentalize their finances; whether it is rational or not is beside the point. Even though we can all agree that the two leading retirement income approaches are functionally the same, if the client is more comfortable breaking an account into buckets-and will therefore have less emotional anxiety when the growth buckets bounce around in choppy markets-that’s the way it should be handled. Lousy emotional asset allocation is the root of most portfolio problems and anything that can improve results by alleviating emotional strain on clients should be encouraged.


Relative Strength Spread

May 25, 2010

The chart below is the spread between the relative strength leaders and relative strength laggards (universe of mid and large cap stocks). When the chart is rising, relative strength leaders are performing better than relative strength laggards. As of 5/24/2010:

The RS Spread has flattened out after the laggard rally of much of 2009. I suspect that this base-building period may be followed by an even more favorable environment for relative strength investing.