Reversing Everything You Thought About Risk

August 3, 2010

For your daily dose of why a relative strength approach to managing money is so essential, Matthew Lynn’s Risk is the New Black in World Turned Upside Down is a must read.

What is risky and what is safe? That has always been a crucial question for anyone working in the financial markets. Bankers provide their clients with an asset mix, tailored to suit the aging widow or the young entrepreneur.

But what if everything you know about risk was suddenly turned upside down? In the last two years, all the stuff we thought was really safe and dull turned out to be dangerous. And the things we thought were risky ended up being quite reliable.

In reality, investors need to reverse everything they thought they knew about risk.

In the context of a relative strength model there is no such thing as “safe” or “risky;” there is only relatively strong and relatively weak. As a result, relative strength models are free to adapt to whatever the new “safe” is or whatever the new “risky” is. One thing we can be sure of is that such designations will change. With a relative strength strategy, your portfolio can reflect those changes and can remain focused on keeping the portfolio fresh with relatively strong securities and therefore improve your chances of earning superior investment returns over time.

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The Bullish Thesis For REITs

August 3, 2010

For those trying to understand the reasons for the exceptionally strong relative strength of REITs, today’s WSJ offers some insight.

WSJ on the strength in the apartment sector:

The hottest REIT stocks in 2010 have been in the apartment sector: names such as Apartment Investment & Management Co. (AIV) and Equity Residential Properties Trust (EQR). Both companies reported quarterly earnings last week, and the shares have gained more than 30% this year.

A solid quarterly report from Equity Residential, which lifted its 2010 outlook, combined with improving market conditions “should have a positive impact on the overall apartment sector,” said Stifel Nicolaus analyst Rod Petrik. “The company appears well positioned to take advantage of positive market trends in the apartment industry.”

Stephen Swett at Morgan Keenan added, “We remain positive on apartments, relative to commercial REITs, as we believe the overall risks in the economy pose less risk to multifamily fundamentals at this time.”

Part of the bullish thesis for the apartment sector is that a soft economy and housing market have caused many to continue renting. The recovery in the multifamily sector “continues to gain momentum driven by lower resident turnover, higher occupancy levels, and accelerating pricing power,” said Raymond James analyst Buck Horne.

WSJ on investors’ hunger for yield:

Investors’ hunger for yield may also be lifting REITs, and some companies have raised dividends after cutting or eliminating them during the credit crunch.

“Investors are viewing REITs as a more attractive investment than they have in the past few years, given their yields compared to U.S. Treasurys and bonds,” said Morgan Joseph analyst Carol Kemple in a quarterly earnings preview.

(Click to Enlarge)

Source: StockCharts.com

As shown in the chart above, REITs have more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 since the beginning of this bull market in March 2009. Due to their strong relative strength, REITs are well represented in our Global Macro separately managed account and in the Arrow DWA Tactical Fund (DWTFX) and will remain so as long as this asset class retains strong relative strength.

To receive the brochure for our Global Macro strategy, click here. For information about the Arrow DWA Tactical Fund (DWTFX), click here.

Click here and here for disclosures. ICF, IYR, RWR and other real estate securities are current holdings in products managed by Dorsey Wright Money Management. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

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Relative Strength Spread

August 3, 2010

The chart below is the spread between the relative strength leaders and relative strength laggards (universe of mid and large cap stocks). When the chart is rising, relative strength leaders are performing better than relative strength laggards. As of 8/2/2010:

RS leaders and laggards continue to mark time without either one substantially distinguishing itself from the other in terms of performance. This transition from a declining spread to what may well be a period of a rising spread has now lasted for over a year.

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