The Behavior Gap in One Picture

September 1, 2010

Michael Covel’s blog has an excellent post with some back-of-the-napkin math. It’s an elegant way to describe the largest issue facing investors: not the economy, unemployment, or housing, but their own behavior.

Source: Michael Covel, Carl Richards

Research shows that bad behavior is most likely to manifest itself when the markets are under stress and investors are very bearish, like now. Find a good, adaptive strategy that you are comfortable with (we hope it will be relative strength) and stick to it.


High RS Diffusion Index

September 1, 2010

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.) As of 8/31/10.

The 10-day moving average of this indicator is 54% and the one-day reading is 57%-roughly the middle of the distribution. 2010 has seen both extremes in this indicator-on 4/16/2010 98% of high relative strength stocks were trading above their 50 day moving average and then only about a month later on 5/20/2010 only 10% of high relative strength stocks were trading above their 50 day moving average.