Emotional Rescue

November 16, 2010

I’ll be your savior, steadfast and true. I’ll come to your emotional rescue.—The Rolling Stones

I’m pretty sure that Mick Jagger attended the London School of Economics at some point. I’m pretty sure that Keith Richards was otherwise occupied. But their lyrics shed light on a big part of what a financial advisor is asked to do. Besides figuring out what strategies actually work in the market over time-we happen to favor strategies that adapt-it’s important to keep clients on an even keel. DALBAR data makes it clear that intestinal fortitude is just as important as investment acumen.

Warren Buffett, in the preface of Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, writes, “To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information. What’s needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework.”

I added the boldface type to emphasize the point, which is all too often completely lost on investors. They place money into a strategy, presumably one that they believe has the opportunity to perform well over time, and then yank money out willy-nilly every time they get uncomfortable. In the market, sad to say, you get uncomfortable a lot. It’s a perfect example of emotions corroding an otherwise good decision framework.

We think our systematic relative strength process is a good way to make sure emotions don’t corrode our decision framework, but we still spend time with clients to keep them on an even keel. I admit that my emotional wiring should probably come with a warning label, but after 25 years I find it hard to get too worked up about the ups and downs of the markets. Clients, naturally, respond a bit differently! It’s important to be able to reframe things for them, to broaden their perspective, and to help them cope with their nervousness. Distraction is good too. (I’m not joking about this-the psychological literature is pretty clear on this point. I tell clients to read the sports pages and let us lose sleep over the market.)

Relationships and trust often matter more than what is bought or sold. A good decision framework is only half the battle. When you look at investor results over time, it’s quite possible that financial advisors can add more performance through good emotional support than through good investment selection.


Investors Go Global

November 16, 2010

Globalization may have come slowly to the U.S., but it seems to have finally arrived. According to a recent article in Financial Planning Magazine, investors are open to thinking about cross-border securities:

A nationwide survey of mass-affluent investors conducted in August by Allianz Global Investors Distributors and GfK Roper found that most (71%) are looking for the best investment, and they don’t really care if that investment is foreign or domestic.

It seems that the trend toward global tactical asset allocation (Go Global Macro, Go!) and international investing may just be picking up steam. Clients also shouldn’t overlook that many domestic equities have significant overseas exposure. Right now the U.S. equity market is still the largest in the world, but that may change over the next generation or two.

Although investors are open to foreign securities, are they really ready for it? After all, because our domestic market is so deep, it’s quite possible to be fairly diversified without ever going outside our market—something that might not be true if, for example, you lived in Belgium. On the other hand, perhaps Belgians are used to thinking in global terms. Americans are not.

…when it comes to international investing, the survey also points to a huge educational need: Two-thirds of investors (67%) admitted they lack knowledge about investing overseas and more than half (54%) said they wanted to learn more.

So there is your challenge and your opportunity in a nutshell. Investors are interested but they are going to need your help. The advisor who is willing to show the client global investment products and bring them up the learning curve may do very well indeed.


Relative Strength Spread

November 16, 2010

The chart below is the spread between the relative strength leaders and relative strength laggards (universe of mid and large cap stocks). When the chart is rising, relative strength leaders are performing better than relative strength laggards. As of 11/15/2010:

RS leaders and laggards continue to perform similarly-as they have for roughly the last 18 months. Relative strength leaders have historically shown a tendency to assert themselves as bull markets age. From that perspective, we believe it is likely that we will see a rising spread in the coming years.