Inflation’s Impact On The Concept Of “Safe” and “Risky”

November 17, 2010

Admit it-at times over the last couple of years your commitment to allocating a large portion of your portfolio to risky securities has been shaken to the core. Perhaps, you might have thought that you could get along just fine over the long run without exposing your portfolio to risk.

Via Mebane Faber’s World Beta and Ned Davis Research, comes a nice reminder of one of the primary reasons to invest: preservation of purchasing power.

Due to the impact of inflation, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has declined by 94% over the last 76 years!

Alternatively, you could have invested in stocks or bonds and have preserved and increased your purchasing power.

It is funny how the concept of “safe” and “risky” change when the effects of inflation are taken into account.


High RS Diffusion Index

November 17, 2010

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.) As of 11/16/10.

After holding above 90% for over 2 months, the one-day reading of this index has now fallen to 75%. Dips in this indicator have often provided good opportunities to add to relative strength strategies.