QE2 Grenade

December 16, 2010

Doug Short has an interesting table and graphic of the surge in U.S. Treasury yields after quantitative easing was announced, what he calls the QE2 Grenade. As you can see from the table below, the yield increases have been substantial.

Source: dshort.com

His conclusion:

…it’s probably too soon to write off the effectiveness of the new round of Fed Treasury purchases. But if a key objective was to keep interest rates low, the Fed’s “Hail Mary” pass appears to have been a grenade.

That’s just how Wall Street works. The policy effect that investors expect and what actually happens are often two different things. It’s critically important to have an investment process that will adapt to whatever the markets throw at you.


Fund Flows

December 16, 2010

The Investment Company Institute is the national association of U.S. investment companies, including mutual funds, closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and unit investment trusts (UITs). Members of ICI manage total assets of $11.82 trillion and serve nearly 90 million shareholders. Flow estimates are derived from data collected covering more than 95 percent of industry assets and are adjusted to represent industry totals.

The only category with positive flows last week was foreign equity funds. Demand for taxable bond funds, which has been seemingly insatiable until recent weeks has even fallen off-no doubt as a result of the spike in interest rates since the end of August.