Dorsey, Wright Client Sentiment Survey - 12/31/10

December 31, 2010

Here we have the next round (and final of the year!) of the Dorsey, Wright Sentiment Survey, the first third-party sentiment poll.

As you know, when individuals self-report, they are always taller and more beautiful than when outside observers report their perceptions! Instead of asking individual investors to self-report whether they are bullish or bearish, we’d like financial advisors to weigh in and report on the actual behavior of clients. It’s two simple questions and will take no more than 20 seconds of your time. We’ll construct indicators from the data and report the results regularly on our blog–but we need your help to get a large statistical sample!

Click here to take Dorsey, Wright’s Client Sentiment Survey.

Contribute to the greater good! It’s painless, we promise.


Bringing About Great Good

December 31, 2010

Last night I had an opportunity to get to know a person of a quality that I have never before known. This woman, who must have been in her eighties, left me in awe and in deep thought. The world has many impressive volunteers who give of their time, talents, and resources for countless worthy causes. However, I’m not sure how many people there are in the world that would fall into the category of this woman who I sat with for several hours.

Last night, my wife and I volunteered to serve at a homeless shelter. This particular homeless shelter provided dinner, medical care, clothing, hair cuts, and showers to nearly 200 homeless in our area. The majority of the homeless had attended such shelters before and knew the flow to the evening. They knew when to sit at the tables, when to line up for the clothing, where to go for the medical care, when to quietly listen to the “message of hope” from that evening’s speaker, and when to set up a cot to sleep on. However, there were others who were there for the first time. It was our responsibility to sit with the unfortunate newcomers to help them get oriented and to give them the information about what resources they could access from the shelter. I met many people who had fallen on hard times. Some had mental challenges, some had physical ailments, and some had recently lost their jobs and had run out of options. Several seemed very bright and capable and I could sense their embarrassment for finding themselves in such a situation.

This eighty-year old volunteer who I found myself sitting next to was completely at ease. She knew and warmly embraced a number of the homeless. She whispered in their ears. I learned that she had spent the last 25 years providing nearly constant service to those in need. She was a regular at the homeless shelters. She is a nurse and volunteers on a regular basis to fly to Mexico with a team of medical doctors who provide free medical care for four days each month to long lines of people in need. Two weeks ago she was serving in an orphanage in Bolivia. She was leaving at 8 in the morning for another medical trip to Mexico. Medical service missions have taken her to India, Armenia, and many countries throughout the world. She spoke of the doctors and pilots who volunteer their services and resources. This woman seemed happy to give detailed answers to our questions. I couldn’t help but think that she probably knew that part of her role was to inspire others to join the cause. However, there was nothing pretentious about her answers. It became crystal clear that this woman devoted her life to this type of service solely for the purpose of making a positive difference in the lives of those who suffer. Did I mention this woman must have been in her eighties?

Among the questions that I had for this woman were questions about the funding for the shelters and the medical missions. I learned enough to know that there is need far greater than the level of current funding. Money truly is power. It is not everything, because money without anything else is nothing.

Being in the wealth management business, by definition, means that we serve a fortunate clientele who control great wealth. That wealth can be used for many purposes, some of which are very noble. After my experiences last night, I don’t know that I have ever felt better about what I do for a living. Our team (and all other successful money managers) have honed a skill set that has earned us the opportunity to manage large amounts of wealth that have been entrusted to us and to seek to help this money grow to much larger sums of wealth, with the knowledge that much of this money may be put to some very noble uses over time. Money truly is power, and great wealth can potentially bring about great good.


MPT Headache

December 31, 2010

Modern Portfolio Theory has had a rough go lately, but its apologists are still trying to find a way to make it sound plausible. There’s a lot of emotional investment in MPT because so many firms have endorsed it and so many assets are invested according to its principles. Consider, for example, the following two statements taken from the same article written by a financial advisor:

Modern portfolio theory can be a useful guide for financial advisers, but it’s just a theory. It doesn’t take into account the current economic context.

And then, a couple of paragraphs later:

MPT is only successful if it takes current economic conditions into consideration.

So, it doesn’t take current conditions into account, but it can only be successful if it takes current conditions into account? What?

That’s why I get a headache when I read this stuff.

I think I understand what he is getting at in his article-that asset allocation can’t be done mechanically through portfolio optimization. Yet, isn’t that the exact premise of Modern Portfolio Theory? Once you start actively tweaking the asset allocation based on your judgement, that’s tactical asset allocation-not a bad thing, but not MPT. When MPT advocates write articles, it seems that more often than not they backpedal into an endorsement of what everyone else calls tactical asset allocation!

Here’s one section of his article that I agree with:

…MPT assumes certain asset classes have reverse correlations — that they’re “natural hedges” for each other. But in 2008 many of those natural hedges crashed at the same time, and many investors who had put all their eggs in the MPT basket faced economic ruin.

Somehow, to me, “economic ruin” sounds slightly worse than the not-really-comforting explanation that MPT is “not that good at dealing with statistical anomalies.” Tactical asset allocation using relative strength does not make any assumptions about the correlations between asset classes and focuses entirely on current conditions, which might be a little safer bet.


Sector and Capitalization Performance

December 31, 2010

The chart below shows performance of US sectors and capitalizations over the trailing 12, 6, and 1 month(s). Relative strength strategies buy securities that have strong intermediate-term relative strength and hold them as long as they remain strong. Performance updated through 12/30/2010.