Emerging Markets: RS vs. Cap Weighting

January 12, 2011

When you think of emerging markets, which of the following countries first comes to mind-China or Malaysia? I suspect most people would say China. Furthermore, when you think of an emerging market ETF, which of the following first comes to mind — EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index) or PIE (PowerShares DWA Emg Mkts Technical Leaders Index)? Again, I suspect most people would say EEM. That just might change over time.

The mandate of the PowerShares DWA Emerging Markets Technical Leaders Index (PIE) is to maintain an index of 100 high relative strength securities from the broad universe of emerging markets securities. In other words, it is a relative strength-weighted index. Compare this to EEM, which is a capitalization-weighted index. Chinese securities currently have a 17% weighting in EEM, while the weighting of Chinese securities in PIE has fallen to about 6%. Additionally, Malaysian securities currently only have about a 3% weight in EEM while they now have over a 20% weighting in PIE. Again, why the difference in weighting? One index is cap-weighted and the other is relative strength-weighted.

The chart below shows how the weightings of Chinese and Malaysian securities has changed over the last couple of years in the PowerShares DWA Emerging Markets Technical Leaders Index. China has been losing exposure while Malaysia has been gaining exposure.

(Click to Enlarge)

While both Malaysia (as measured by EWM) and China (as measured by FXI) were up about 45% in 2009, the two took a different path in 2010. Malaysia was up over 35% in 2010, while China was up only about 2%. Furthermore, relative strength was well-rewarded in 2010 as PIE was up 24.68%, while EEM was up only 14.80%.

Click here to access the fact sheet for the PowerShares DWA Emerging Markets Technical Leaders Index (PIE). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Forecasting = Guessing

January 12, 2011

 Forecasting = Guessing

Source: Carl Richards, New York Times

I think Carl Richards hits the nail on the head here. Investing for your future is too important to be left to guessing. We think it is far more sensible to harness a proven return factor (like relative strength) in a systematic process. There is enough randomness in the market and in life as it is!

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High RS Diffusion Index

January 12, 2011

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.) As of 1/19/10.

diffusion11211 High RS Diffusion Index

The 10-day moving average of this indicator is 87% and the one-day reading is 82%. Although this index has pulled back some in recent weeks, the vast majority of high relative strength stocks continue to trade above their 50-day moving average.

 

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What’s Hot…and Not

January 12, 2011

How different investments have done over the past 12 months, 6 months, and month.

assetclassperf11211 Whats Hot...and Not

1PowerShares DB Gold, 2iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, 3iShares DJ U.S. Real Estate Index, 4iShares S&P Europe 350 Index, 5Green Haven Continuous Commodity Index, 6iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund, 7JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Fund, 8PowerShares DB US Dollar Index, 9iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund, 10PowerShares DB Oil, 11iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond

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