Daunting Task of Security Analysis (For the Fundamental Manager)

February 9, 2011

One of the most daunting aspects of security analysis for fundamental analysts is the incredible growth in global equity securities. Even for those fundamental managers with a mandate of investing in only a slice of this universe, segmented by size or style for example, trying to gain a working understanding of each of the company’s financial statements, company management, industry trends, and geopolitical considerations is an overwhelming task to say the least.

The figure below shows the total number of equities available in the global market. This total is 8,462 which is based on those included in the MSCI ACWI. This index provides a useful proxy and includes the majority of stocks traded on the major exchanges around the world. The market capitalization of this universe was approximately $27 trillion at September 30, 2009.

Source: BNY Mellon

Looking at this another way, the figure below shows the break-down by percentage of world market capitalization.

Source: BNY Mellon

For the technical analyst, it is a different story. In the context of relative strength models, the more the merrier. Price is the only input used to construct the relative strength ranks which in turn determine the buy and sell decisions within the model. If a given investment universe expands by 20% over a period of time, our models are no less comprehensive in their analysis. I doubt that the same can be said for the fundamental analyst.

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60 Percent Don’t Know What ETFs Are

February 9, 2011

One of the more interesting side-notes of the ETF industry’s recent climb above $1 trillion in assets is that it still seems to be very early in its growth phase. In fact, more than 60 percent of investors, including high-net-worth individuals, don’t use ETFs because they don’t know what they are, according to Chicago-based consultancy Mintel Comperemedia (ETFR, Feb. 2011). The results of the Mintel study dovetail with two separate studies from TD Ameritrade and Schwab that showed just 15 percent of retail investors are using ETFs. Yet, that is likely to change quickly in the coming years if current growth rates continue. Impressively, it only took the ETF industry 18 years to hit $1 trillion in AUM, while it took the mutual fund industry 68 years to accomplish the same feat.

We have also seen impressive growth in the three PowerShares Technical Leaders Indexes that we manage. The combined assets in PDP, PIZ, and PIE is now approximately $900 million — up from just over $300 million at the end of 2007. No doubt, the following performance has helped our growth.

For more information, please see www.powershares.com.

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High RS Diffusion Index

February 9, 2011

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.) As of 2/8/11.

After pulling back to 68% on Jan.21, the one-day measure of this index has moved higher and is now at 88%, reflecting the strength of this bull market.

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