On Performance Measurement

March 1, 2011

This is a great letter to the editor. I saw it in the print edition of Pensions & Investments, but I’ve given you the link. The author discusses the difference between time-weighted returns and money-weighted (more typically called dollar-weighted) returns. Here’s a big excerpt, some of which I put in bold for emphasis:

Many pension funds are still trying to recover from the devastation they’ve suffered as a result of the market downturn (“CalPERS goes with new risk-based allocation,” Pensions & Investments, Dec. 27). And many are seeing that using market indexes are the inappropriate metric to perform against, substituting absolute and/or liability-related benchmarks. But how many also see that the return they’re using is inappropriate?

Most pension funds, I would guess, only use time-weighting to measure performance. And why? Probably for a few reasons: because that’s the way they’ve always done it; because that’s what the GIPS, or Global Investment Performance Standards, require; because that’s the measure their consultants use and recommend.

They fail to recall that time-weighting was developed in the 1960s as a way to measure the performance of their managers, not their performance. The Bank Administration Institute, on the heels of Peter Dietz’s landmark thesis, put forward the first standard on performance measurement in 1968. This was followed in 1971 by the Investment Council Association of America’s standard. Both promulgated time-weighted measures, which eliminate, or reduce, the impact of cash flows. And why would they do this? Because managers don’t control the flows, their clients do.

So great, if you want to know how your managers are doing, use time-weighting. But when it comes to wanting to know how the fund itself is doing, why on earth are you going to eliminate the very cash flows which you control? To utilize time-weighting makes absolutely no sense. Money-weighting is the measure to be using. Yes, this means you’ll be calculating returns two ways, but that’s because you’re asking two different questions: How is our manager doing? And how are we doing?

Simply great-and this point is not emphasized enough. Managers do not control cash flows. Even when managers have good performance, clients typically do not. (This ridiculous story about world-class manager Ken Heebner and the CGM Focus Fund is the poster child for horribly timed cash flows. The corollary, I guess, is not to blame the manager for your own failings.) That’s why the DALBAR numbers are always so drastically lower than NAV returns. The NAV return shows the manager’s performance, but DALBAR calculates investor returns using dollar-weighting.

One way to dramatically improve your returns is to make like Steve Nash and give your portfolio an assist: add money to a sound strategy when the market has declined and you are feeling uncomfortable. Seth Klarman’s definition of a good client is one that is willing to consider adding money to an account after a period of underperformance. Good clients make even bad managers look good, and bad clients make even good managers look bad.

Source: theswamp51


Investment Strategies for Mideast Dictators

March 1, 2011

Josh Brown strikes again. This is so politically incorrect!


Inflationary Risk - What Are Your Options?

March 1, 2011

Today I came across an article on SmartMoney entitled Fighting Inflation with Mutual Funds. The gist of the article is that inflation is here (or on its way), so it’s time for investors to protect their purchasing power! The article runs through three mutual fund categories as options for investors looking for that protection:

  1. Real Return Funds. Consider these to be inflation-protected bond funds, invested in TIPS, floating rate notes, mortgages, or hard asset bonds like real estate.
  2. Global Bond Funds. Invest in the bonds from countries that benefit from inflation and commodity pressures, i.e., countries with lots of natural resources.
  3. Bank Loan Funds. These funds allow investors to own chunks of corporate loans, which typically have floating interest rates.

The main problem I have with these options is that they are relatively inflexible. In each case, the fund is designed to only invest in one specific asset class, while completely ignoring the rest of the field. Let’s be honest with ourselves and admit that no one can predict what’s going to happen in the market going forward…unfortunately, it’s also impossible to predict which asset class or bond fund is going to outrun inflationary pressures. In my opinion, these types of articles frame the question poorly, as the reader is presented with only three options, all of which I’d consider to be “locked-in” to one particular fund style.

Is it really wise to commit to just one asset class or bond-style, without leaving any room for adaptation and flexibility?

Our solution to this problem is the Global Macro portfolio (also available as the Arrow DWA Tactical Fund), which can invest across a broad range of asset classes that may provide inflation protection. Because it’s a tactical strategy, the portfolio allocation across the asset classes can change, depending on which asset class is performing the best. We built the portfolio to solve this very problem – if something is not performing relatively well, it gets kicked out and replaced with an asset class that is.

So, when considering which of the trillion different mutual funds on the market to buy, ask yourself, “Does this portfolio have the ability to adapt to a changing market environment going forward?”

To obtain a fact sheet and prospectus for the Arrow DWA Tactical Fund (DWTFX), click here.

Click here for disclosures. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


What’s Hot…and Not

March 1, 2011

How different investments have done over the past 12 months, 6 months, and month.

1PowerShares DB Gold, 2iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, 3iShares DJ U.S. Real Estate Index, 4iShares S&P Europe 350 Index, 5Green Haven Continuous Commodity Index, 6iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund, 7JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Fund, 8PowerShares DB US Dollar Index, 9iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund, 10PowerShares DB Oil, 11iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond