Unhappy Two-Year Anniversary

March 14, 2011

Everyone remembers the scary March 2009 low, which had its two-year anniversary just a few days ago. However, very few people took advantage of the opportunity it presented. From a Morningstar article on flow of funds comes this nice graphic:

Yep, you guessed it. The stuff people sell in a panic subsequently tends to do better than the stuff they buy. Right now, investors are still dumping stocks and buying bonds. Based on Morningstar’s investigations into fund flows, that may not be a good choice over a two- or three-year time horizon.


Can We Grow Our Way Out of the Debt Bomb?

March 14, 2011

Not at these growth rates! Bloomberg carried the text of the Fed’s Flow of Funds release for Q4 2010. It shows the annual rates of debt growth, which are currently way, way higher than GDP growth:

State and local government debt rose about 8 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter, after a 5½ percent increase in the third quarter. Federal government debt increased at an annual rate of 14½ percent in the fourth quarter; for 2010 as a whole, federal government debt grew a bit more than 20 percent.

GDP growth in Q4 is estimated at 4.1%. At no time in the entire history of Fed releases has annual GDP growth been at 20%, even for one quarter. The growth rate, as you can see in the graphic below, hasn’t been over 10% for a long time.

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank

With debt growing at 20% and the economy growing at 4% the eventual outcome for the credit rating on U.S. government debt is sadly predictable. On the plus side, turmoil will create all kinds of good investment opportunities—opportunities that systematic investors will have an opportunity to exploit.


Don’t Trust Your Instincts

March 14, 2011

The New York Times offers a preview of a soon-to-be released study by Philip Z. Maymin, an assistant professor of finance and risk engineering at Polytechnic Institute of New York University, who studied comprehensive records kept by the investment firm Gerstein Fisher from the firm’s founding in 1993 to mid-2010.

The study, which will be published in the spring edition of The Journal of Wealth Management, found that the value of investment advisers was not in the stocks or mutual funds they recommended but in their ability to restrain investors from impulsively trading at the wrong time. It cites data showing that aggressive orders by individuals can cost them about four percentage points a year. (my emphasis added)

Addressing the urge to trade after increased market volatility, the article states the following:

“The urge never goes to zero,” Mr. Maymin said. “People who want to trade aggressively, it will never go away. If the market is volatile, it increases.”

More than that urge not going away, the Maymin-Fisher study found, it reappears just after a sudden rise or fall in the market. In other words, investors did not trade in expectation of intense volatility or even during it, which might be rational. They waited until the period of greatest volatility had passed and then looked to do what any adviser would tell them not to do: sell at the bottom or buy at the top.

We see this play out on a regular basis. Those financial advisers that are of the most value to their clients are the ones who are successful in keeping their clients invested in good strategies through all the inevitable ups and downs. An advisor who can deliver four percentage points a year in alpha as a result of their ability to successfully manage investor behavior is worth every penny in fees that they receive.


Weekly RS Recap

March 14, 2011

The table below shows the performance of a universe of mid and large cap U.S. equities, broken down by relative strength decile and quartile and then compared to the universe return. Those at the top of the ranks are those stocks which have the best intermediate-term relative strength. Relative strength strategies buy securities that have strong intermediate-term relative strength and hold them as long as they remain strong.

Last week’s performance (3/7/11 – 3/11/11) is as follows:

Not a good week for high relative strength stocks. The Energy sector, which has gained significant strength over the past 6-9 months, was down almost three percent for the week.