Building Financial Wealth: A Primer

April 19, 2011

Many of our clients refer to themselves as “wealth managers.” For that reason alone, it’s important to define what financial wealth really is and how it is obtained. Fortunately, there is a very relevant article on MarketWatch today by Jennifer Waters that is a good basic discussion. First up, a basic definition of wealth:

Wealth is what you accumulate, not what you spend,” according to Thomas Stanley and William Danko, the authors of the seminal tome on America’s wealthy “The Millionaire Next Door,” first published in 1996.

The emphasis is mine. I think this part is so often overlooked—not by the truly wealthy, but by the general public. The big spender is usually not actually wealthy, but merely has a high current income. In fact, people are often wealthy precisely because they don’t overspend:

…most of those with big bucks live well under their means — think about Warren Buffet still living in that modest Omaha home — and they put their money instead toward investments that help them stockpile more wealth.

“It is seldom luck or inheritance or advanced degrees or even intelligence that enables people to amass fortunes,” the authors wrote. “Wealth is more often the result of a lifestyle of hard work, perseverance, planning, and, most of all, self discipline.”

 Building Financial Wealth: A Primer

www.cashadvocate.com

Is this shocking to anyone? No—but it’s a good reminder. You might get lucky with an inheritance, but wealth is rarely gained by winning the lottery. Wealth is achieved by working hard, living under your means so that you can save, and then putting the money toward investments that help you stockpile more wealth.

Having a high income can obviously help you save, but a high income alone is no guarantee of eventual wealth, as the article points out:

People with high incomes who spend all that money are not rich; they’re just stupid.

A wise advisor once pointed out to me that, “Making the first million is difficult. Making the second million is inevitable.” What he was getting at, I think, is the point that the first million requires discipline, patience, and investing acumen, especially when you’re starting with nothing. It takes quite a while for the snowball to accumulate as it rolls downhill. If you are fortunate enough to acquire the first million, your saving and investing habits are well-established and ingrained, so the next million is relatively easy. The second million is typically a lot faster than the first—that’s the way compounding works.

Once earned, wealth needs to be protected. Intelligent portfolio construction is one way that advisors can add a lot of value to clients:

“The wealthiest clients have very, very diversified portfolios that go way beyond just stocks and bonds into hedge funds, currencies, commodities and emerging markets,” said Leslie Lassiter, managing director of the JPMorgan Private Wealth Management.

Flexible exposure to good asset classes at appropriate times can go a long way toward enhancing client wealth. Whether you use something like our Global Macro strategy, or mix-and-match separate accounts or mutual funds is not so important. The critical idea is making those investments work together toward the client’s end result.

The biggest objection of most clients boils down to this: they are very concerned that they won’t have fun if they live below their means. I think this reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of what makes us feel good about our lives. In the long run, spending more on a nicer car or another pair of shoes isn’t going to help. In study after study, what gives meaning and enjoyment to our lives is the number and quality of our personal relationships. That’s where real wealth is found.

Posted by:


The Valuation Dilemma

April 19, 2011

Is the market undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued?

To answer that question, you would have to first know which market I am referring to (US, Emerging Markets, small caps, large caps, fixed income, commodities, real estate…) You would also need to determine the set of criteria by which to measure valuation (P/E ratio, PEG ratio, ROIC, ROA, P/S…) You would need to decide how much data you want to include for the evaluation period (50 years, 100 years, 200 years…) Importantly, you would also need to make the assumption that future market valuations would adhere to the ranges observed in the data set. Perhaps, you can see why “experts” routinely disagree about whether a given market is overvalued, fairly valued, or undervalued!

Behavioral Finance theory provides additional reasons why valuation is so uncertain.

An essential element of optimal choice is that it is based on an underlying set of consistent preferences. A range of evidence from behavioral economics suggests that individuals in fact have a difficult time forming consistent subjective valuations. Valuations instead appear malleable and arbitrary, as demonstrated in contexts in which alternatives have attributes that are not easily valued or that vary along multiple dimensions. For example, individuals often reverse their stated preferences when they are given choice attributes jointly instead of separately. Valuations of positive and negative attributes of alternatives differe depending on whether individuals are selecting or rejecting alternatives. And the attributes that individual base their valuations on can be difficult to view as the result of perfect optimization. In one example, individuals tasting wines were found to peg their valuations of different wines-as indicated through brain imaging-to the price of the wine rather than the taste. (Emphasis added)

Perhaps most dramatically, other results suggest that individuals’ preferences can be influenced by external cues that have no plausible connection to subjective value. For example, experiments have shown that reminding individuals of the last two digits of their Social Security number affects how they value goods-individual with higher numbers with tend to value goods more highty than those with low numbers, even while be reminded of the arbitrariness of the Social Security number. Finally, preferences appear to be very sensitive to the way in which choices are structured. The addition or subtraction of alternatives, even irrelevant alternatives, can also lead to preference reversals.

-Policy and Choice: Public Finance through the Lens of Behavioral Economics by William J. Congdon, Jeffrey R. Kling, and Sendhil Mullainathan

Clearly, the valuation game is a treacherous one.

Confused?

One of the reasons we are so drawn to relative strength investing is because it is such a robust concept. We have archived a large number of white papers on relative strength on our website, which detail the exceptional results achieved by this factor in many different time horizons, countries and asset classes over time. Relative strength investing requires significantly less subjectivity than does valuation. We routinely invest in strong trends that “experts” argue are overvalued. We’re used to it. Sometimes, they get it right. More often, the overvalued calls persist for years until finally they are “proven right.” A more pragmatic, and likely profitable, approach is to simply stay with the strong trends as long as they remain strong.

Posted by:


What’s Hot…and Not

April 19, 2011

How different investments have done over the past 12 months, 6 months, and month.

1PowerShares DB Gold, 2iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, 3iShares DJ U.S. Real Estate Index, 4iShares S&P Europe 350 Index, 5Green Haven Continuous Commodity Index, 6iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund, 7JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Fund, 8PowerShares DB US Dollar Index, 9iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund, 10PowerShares DB Oil, 11iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond

Posted by: