Go Active or Go Home!

April 27, 2011

That’s the reminder from this Morningstar article of the same name. Active share is a measurement of how different a portfolio is from its benchmark index. Portfolios with high active share have some worthwhile attributes, one of which tends to be long-term outperformance:

They’re not afraid to look different from their peers and the index even if it means short-term periods of underperformance, which they’ve all experienced or will almost certainly experience.

But funds with high active share scores stand a better chance of outperforming over longer periods of time than funds with only a modicum of active share. Funds with high active share scores outperform by so much that they even tend to overcome the bad effects of high expenses in the cases of funds that are burdened by them.

I put the good parts in bold. Good funds with high active share tend to perform well regardless of expenses. It’s so tiring to hear the indexing argument that low-expense funds are the only way to go. Low-expense index funds may be fine compared to full-fee closet index funds, but that’s not the whole truth.

However, to get that good performance, you need to deviate from the index in an intelligent way—and the investment organization needs to be tolerant of periodic underperformance.

Many investment organizations are not performance-driven, they’re AUM-driven. If you care only about assets under management, you can’t tolerate periods of underperformance for a year or two because retail investors tend to bail out. To keep the bulk of the retail investors around, some organizations try to hug the benchmark closely, figuring that they might never have big outperformance—but they won’t have big underperformance either—and they’ll make it up in marketing.

Over a number of years, the tendency of many firms to closet-index has led to a bad rap for active management: active managers can’t beat the index. The research on active share shows that to be completely false. Yet, when researchers look at a broad sample of “active” funds, they tend to have index performance less expenses. Why? Because a lot of “active” funds are not truly active. The retail investor is being charged fees for active management, yet is receiving a closet index fund. No wonder retail investors are confused!

Morningstar has some advice at the end of their article:

…investors need to be more vigilant, given the massive proliferation of index-hugging funds since 1980.

In the end, if you’re going to choose to pay up for active management, you may as well get it.

In other words, know what you own and make sure that you are actually getting active management if you are paying for it!

[If you had any doubt, relative strength is a proven long-term return factor that typically results in a portfolio with high active share. For example, our Systematic RS Core portfolio has an active share of 93.9%; the active share for the Systematic RS Aggressive style is typically even higher. Even our Technical Leaders Index (PDP) has an active share of 91.5%, proving that even an index fund of relative strength leaders may look very little like the S&P 500! We think that bodes very well for their long-term performance prospects.]

See PowerShares for more information about PDP.

Click here for disclosures from Dorsey Wright Money Management. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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The Plight of the Dollar

April 27, 2011

Source: www.michaelcovel.com, www.garyvarvel.com

Even budding entrepreneurs are wise to US fiscal and monetary policy!

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Are We Seeing a Creeping Devaluation of the US Dollar?

April 27, 2011

According to Bloomberg, the creeping devaluation of the dollar may not be over:

The dollar fell to a 16-month low versus the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve will consider further easing measures to support the U.S. economy after its bond-buying program expires in June.

My emphasis. But further easing measures, with interest rates already at zero? Wow! I have no idea if this will really happen, but you might want to rethink things if you are loaded into domestic bonds. So far, commodity prices have continued to crank up as the dollar has fallen. Commodities are a reasonable inflation hedge, but most strategically allocated portfolios typically have commodities as an afterthought. Tactical portfolios (like Global Macro or DWTFX), on the other hand, often have significant commodity exposure when those assets are strong.

Click image to enlarge. Source: Yahoo! Finance

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Looking Beneath the Veil

April 27, 2011

International investing is all the rage these days, at least in the equity business. For what little equity they’ve been buying at all, investors recentlyhave been dumping domestic stock funds and buying international stock funds. Often, this is based on an assumption like “the dollar has been going down, therefore international funds should do better than domestic funds.” This might not be having the desired effect at all. You shouldn’t avoid domestic stock portfolios on principle. The reason is that many of them have significant indirect foreign exposure. According to a Morningstar article, even the indexes have big international exposure:

Gauged according to underlying sales, after all, the S&P 500 isn’t a domestic-stock index. It’s an international benchmark, one whose companies streamed in 46.6% of their revenue from foreign shores last year, according to S&P’s estimates. Approximately a third of that sum, moreover, was rung up in emerging markets.

The upshot: Seen through a revenue-focused lens, Vanguard 500 and SPDR S&P 500 aren’t plain-vanilla domestic-market trackers, and your portfolio likely tilts further in the direction of foreign fare than you might have imagined…

In other words, a plain-vanilla domestic equity account has much more ability to tilt toward international investing than commonly realized.

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High RS Diffusion Index

April 27, 2011

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.) As of 4/26/11.

The vast majority of high relative strength stocks continue to trend higher. The 10-day moving average of this indicator is 69% and the one-day reading is 84%.

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