Sorry, Growth…Momentum Is Just a Better Fit

April 29, 2011

For decades the investment industry has embraced the concept of mixing growth and value. This is based on the idea that because the two styles are not perfectly correlated there are diversification benefits possible by mixing the two.

However, we frequently make the case that investors are likely to achieve better results by replacing their growth exposure with momentum. Others have also made this case. In fact, click here for an excellent white paper by AQR Capital on the topic.

As an illustration, consider the chart below which compares the performance of a momentum/value combination and a growth/value combination.

french Sorry, Growth...Momentum Is Just a Better Fit

(Click to Enlarge)

Source: Ken French Data Library*, Russell Investments

The momentum index is based on an index maintained at the Ken French Data Library and is composed of US stocks from the top half of capitalization and top third of momentum in his universe. As shown above, $100 in the momentum/value combination turned into $423 while $100 in the growth/value combination turned into only $292.

Sorry, growth…momentum is just a better fit.

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Superman Opens Global Macro Account

April 29, 2011

I think the paperwork came from an office in Smallville, Kansas. Well, not exactly. But it might not be out of the realm of possibility. In a sign that even popular culture is embracing globalization, Superman renounces his US citizenship in his most recent comic. According to a CNBC story:

Superman has started a stir with a declaration in the new issue of “Action Comics” that he intends to renounce his U.S. citizenship…The Man of Steel, who emigrated to earth as a child from Krypton and was adopted by the Kents in Smallville, Kan., comes to the conclusion that he’s better off serving the world at large…

“‘Truth, justice and the American way’ — it’s not enough anymore,” he says. “The world’s too small, too connected.”

At least that’s his story. I think he’s just upset about the declining dollar.

Citizen of the World

Source: www.theunexplainedmysteries.com

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Lottery Winners Go Bust

April 29, 2011

I have sometimes jokingly contended that if you took all of the money in the world and divided it equally, ten years later the people who have the money now would have it again. Based on a study done by three academics at Kentucky, Pittsburgh, and Vanderbilt, there may be some support for my thesis!

Source: www.flalottery.com

Specifically, they studied lottery winners that received small to midsize jackpots ranging from $600 to $150,000 in the Florida lottery between 1993 and 2002. Then they compared bankruptcy filings for small winners (< $10,000) to big winners (> $50,000). Five years out, people who win $150,000 are just as likely to declare bankruptcy as those who win less than $10,000. There’s a lesson in the results:

“I’ve always been interested in whether you could solve people’s problems to some extent by giving them additional cash,” says Mark Hoekstra, assistant economics professor at Pittsburgh, who co-authored the paper with Kentucky’s Scott Hankins and Vanderbilt’s Paige Marta Skiba.

The study has policy implications for governments deciding how to help heavily indebted people who are struggling during economic downturns, Hoekstra says. It appears the simplest solution — giving them cash — doesn’t enhance longer-term financial stability, and only postpones, rather than avoids, bankruptcy. The lottery findings are consistent with a 2007 research paper that showed consumers initially used their 2001 federal rebate checks to reduce debt, but eventually debt returned to its pre-rebate level.

“Our research suggests that perhaps there is something more systematic about the types of people who get themselves into financial trouble — and the appropriate policy prescription for helping them out is going to be considerably more complex than giving them additional resources,” says Hoekstra.

“Winning the lottery undid any negative shock (that previously occurred) for the large winners, and they still ended up filing for bankruptcy,” Hoekstra says. “That is inconsistent with the idea that the only people who file for bankruptcy are those with negative shocks such as divorce, job loss or health issues.”

Unless people learn the basics of saving and investing, handing them a chunk of money does not seem to solve their financial problems. Advisors have a big role to play in creating financial literacy for a wider population—and apparently there is no shortage of work to be done.

Appropriate Lottery Winner Apparel

Source: www.urshirts.com

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Sector and Capitalization Performance

April 29, 2011

The chart below shows performance of US sectors and capitalizations over the trailing 12, 6, and 1 month(s). Performance updated through 4/28/2011.

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