Asset Class Performance Since 9/11

September 8, 2011

With the 10-year anniversary of 9/11 coming up this Sunday, Bespoke Investment Group highlighted how various asset classes have performed since then.

Looking at this data, I can’t help but wonder how many asset allocation models cap their commodity exposure at token amounts in the single digits. Whether you had 3 percent commodity exposure or 6, it doesn’t much matter. On the other hand, if your model had the flexibility to allocate up to 30 percent to commodities, for example, then you are likely in much better shape.

Disclosure: Dorsey Wright currently has positions in commodity-related securities, including DGL, DBS, and DBP. A list of all holdings for the trailing 12 months is available upon request.

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Inflation Expectations

September 8, 2011

The market for inflation expectations used to be alive and well in the UK. According to The Source, that changed for a strange reason:

After just a few months, the U.K. government’s savings arm has stopped selling its inflation-protected savings certificates to retail investors.

Not because it was doing badly. But because it was too successful.

In the four months since they were reintroduced, the certificates, which pay 0.5 percentage points above the rate of retail price inflation, have been wildly popular. Half a million individual certificates were bought in that time. It seems sales were ended because retail banks complained that they were having trouble raising funds from the market, as huge volumes of money flowed to the savings certificates instead.

The Bank of England, like the Fed until recently, has been engaged in quantitative easing. The bank now owns 25% of the gilts (UK government bonds) outstanding! After injecting all of that money into the system, the BOE is still expecting subdued inflation. Based on the demand for inflation protection from the private market, retail investors are betting the BOE is wrong.

We’ll just have to see who ends up on the right side of this trade over time, but betting markets expressing supply and demand are usually more accurate than policy makers.

Source: uk.ask.com

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ETFs on a Roll

September 8, 2011

According to an article on Advisor One, ETFs are on a roll:

One of the bright spots in U.S. markets over the past few years has been ETFs, whose assets have grown at almost 30% a year since 2005 and now total well over $1 trillion. In its most basic form, an ETF is an open-end fund (typically tracking an index) that trades on an exchange. It has a unique creation and redemption process for primary transactions and provides daily transparency of holdings. Introduced in the U.S. 18 years ago, ETFs have been steadily gaining traction among investors and advisors, so that, according to Morningstar, they generate up to 40% of exchange trading volume.

Rydex|SGI, who conducted a study about ETF use, found another important factoid:

More indicative of future prospects of ETFs, perhaps, is the survey’s finding that more than half of advisors plan to increase use of ETFs in the next three years. This is in-line with some industry projections that U.S. ETF assets will double, to $2 trillion, in the next five years.

If you are a financial advisor, you need to pay attention to this. Growth of 30% annually for the last five years suggests not just that advisors like these products, but that clients find them attractive as well.

One of the things that we find most useful about ETFs is their ability to target specific asset classes or market segments—perfect for tactical asset allocation. The generally reasonable fees are nice also, but we’re more interested in the investment merits. In the past, only hedge funds were able to get target exposure to many of these asset classes, but now ETFs have made them available to retail investors. ETFs still need to be used wisely, but the performance of some global allocation funds (including DWAFX and DWTFX) shows that it is more than possible.

To obtain a fact sheet and prospectus for the Arrow DWA Tactical Fund (DWTFX) or the Arrow DWA Balanced Fund (DWAFX), clickhere.

To receive a brochure for our Systematic RS portfolios, please click here. Click here for disclosures from Dorsey Wright Money Management. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Fund Flows

September 8, 2011

The Investment Company Institute is the national association of U.S. investment companies, including mutual funds, closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and unit investment trusts (UITs). Members of ICI manage total assets of $11.82 trillion and serve nearly 90 million shareholders. Flow estimates are derived from data collected covering more than 95 percent of industry assets and are adjusted to represent industry totals.

Hybrid funds attracted the most money this week, as domestic equities continue to bleed cash. Taxable bonds continue to hold a huge margin over the other fund groups.

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