The WSJ’s article 2012 Was Good for Stocks, Bad for Stock Pundits reviews the track record for some well known pundits. After detailing some of the blown 2012 calls by Jim Rogers and Jim Cramers, the article provides the following rather dreary summary:
Neither Mr. Rogers nor Mr. Cramer should feel singled out. The business of market punditry is fraught with potholes.
Of the 65 market “gurus” tracked during the last few years by CXO Advisory Group, the median accuracy for market calls is 47%. If that sounds low, or you wonder about the quality of the pundit, consider that the list includes such well-known names as Bill Fleckenstein (37%), Jeremy Grantham (48%), Bill Gross (46%) and Louis Navellier (60%).
The record speaks for itself. Most of the smartest guys in the room are usually about as reliable as a coin flip. After bombing in 2011 with a prediction that Treasury yields would rise, Mr. Gross, founder and co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., didn’t make any sweeping predictions for 2012 except to say he worried about Europe.
Something to keep in mind while reviewing forecasts for 2013.
