The Case for Dividends

February 27, 2013

The case for investing for dividends is nicely summarized in this paper produced by First Trust.

The Importance of Dividends

With interest rates at historically low levels,these are challenging times to invest for income. In this environment, dividend-paying companies may reward investorsseeking income as well as capital appreciation potential. This paper outlines some of the benefits of dividend-paying stocks as well as their significance in today’s market environment.

Reasons to Consider Dividend-Paying Stocks

  • Interest rates are at historically low levels
  • Key component of total return
  • May be a signal of capital strength

Historical Perspective

Investing in dividend-paying stocks is a time-tested strategy that provides an attractive combination of income and capital appreciation potential. A dividend is a distribution of a portion of a company’s earnings which is decided by the company’s board of directors and payable to its shareholders. Companies that pay dividends tend to be mature companies and may be less volatile than companies that do not pay dividends.Corporations are not obligated to share their earnings with stockholders and not all companies do. It is for this reason that dividends may be viewed as an indication of a company’s profitability, as well as management’s assessment of the future.

A Key Component of Total Return

Historically, dividends have made up a significant portion of stock market total return. According to Ibbotson Associates, dividends have provided approximately 44% of the 9.77% average annual total return on the S&P 500 Index from 1926 through 2011. In addition, dividend-payers have historically outperformed non-payers.The chart at right shows that dividend payers in the S&P 500 Index have outperformed non-dividend payers in 21 out of the last 32 years, a period which included both rising and falling markets. Additionally,the dividend payers had a negative return in only 3 of the 32 years versus 10 years of negative performance for the non-payers. According to Standard and Poor’s, in 2011,the payers were up 1.40% vs. a decline of 7.60% for the non-payers. It is important to note that there can be no assurance that companies will declare dividends in the future or that, if declared,they will remain at current levels or increase over time.

dividends The Case for Dividends

Dorsey Wright has partnered with First Trust for several years now to provide relative strength-based UITs, including a Relative Strength Dividend UIT. A key feature of this strategy is that our relative strength analysis is done on a total return basis (incorporating price and yield). We believe that this will have some important performance and risk management benefits over time. Past performance, holdings, and other information about these strategies can be found at www.ftportfolios.com.

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Assessing Fixed Income

February 27, 2013

Interesting perspective via ETF Trends on the potential risks in the fixed income markets—high-yield bonds in particular:

Michael Holland, chairman of Holland & Co., told Bloomberg that bond prices are acting like dot-com stocks during the Internet craze. “I’ve been in the business for 40 years, and the reality is that we’ve never had a situation like this because this is totally manufactured by the Fed,” he said.

“The interest-rate risk is just a law of nature,” said Craig Packer, head of Americas leveraged finance for Goldman Sachs, referring to junk bonds.

“I don’t know if it will be this year, but five years from now we’re going to look back and realize that investors were taking on real interest-rate risk when they were buying any of these products and that risk came to fruition,” Packer said in the Bloomberg story. “I feel pretty comfortable predicting that. It’s not the 2006-2007 credit risk. It’s the 2013 interest-rate risk.”

Will this prediction be any different than the countless other bearish predictions over the last couple years for fixed income? Who knows. However, at some point I do think it is highly likely that interest rates rise—perhaps substantially so. There are many different factors at work here, including Fed policy and the strength of the economic recovery. If and when rates do rise, there are going to be a lot of investors asking questions not only about yield, but also about risk management.

Right now, we do hold high-yield bonds in some of our investment strategies, due to their strong relative strength. However, I take comfort in the fact that we approach our exposure tactically. In other words, we are not married to any one position.

Dorsey Wright even introduced a Tactical Fixed Income strategy earlier this year (financial professionals can click here to view a video presentation on the strategy) that we believe may prove very valuable in the years ahead.

Dorsey Wright currently owns HYG. A list of all holdings for the trailing 12 months is available upon request. Please click here for disclosures.

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High RS Diffusion Index

February 27, 2013

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.) As of 2/26/13.

diffusion 02.27.131 High RS Diffusion Index

The 10-day moving average of this indicator is 84% and the one-day reading is 71%.

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