The WSJ this morning on how to win your NCAA Office Pool:
Pick the favorites. This is the only foolproof way to guarantee you won’t embarrass yourself.
For all of the attention paid to underdogs—is there any other reason you know Florida Gulf Coast University exists?—the better team still wins most round-of-64 games. Over the last 10 seasons, the average number of double-digit seeds beating favorites was six per tournament. Meanwhile, a bracket with favorites winning every game last year would have placed in the 91st percentile of entries to ESPN’s contest, a company spokeswoman said. In other words, your bracket can only be so contrary until it’s cuckoo.
Part of the fun of NCAA Office Pools is bragging rights of picking the underdogs (even if it’s a statistical unlikelihood). However, this same principle applies to investing. When it comes to the financial markets, rather than shoot for bragging rights, go for the money!
