Systematic RS Int’l: Risk-Adjusted Returns

August 11, 2014

Are you getting paid for the risk that you are taking? There are a number of statistics that are designed to help an investor make that evaluation for any given strategy. Sharpe ratio, which measures unit of return per unit of standard deviation can be helpful in this regard. In the case of our Systematic RS International portfolio (available as a separately managed account), evaluating the Sharpe ratio, in addition to standard deviation and annualized returns can be helpful. Looking at the statistics below one can see that the Systematic RS International (Net) has outperformed the MSCI EAFE Index by 5.58% annually since its inception date of March 31, 2006. However, one would also note that the standard deviation (volatility) of the Systematic RS International portfolio has been 4.42% higher than the MSCI EAFE. Do those excess returns justify the higher volatility?

int'l stats

Source: Dorsey Wright. Click here for disclosures.

Add to those statistics the fact that the Sharpe ratio for the Systematic RS International portfolio has been nearly double that of the MSCI EAFE since March 31, 2006 and I would suggest that the answer is yes to the question of whether or not an investor is getting adequately compensated for the risk taken in this portfolio.

sharpe ratio

The statistics above are based on total price returns, inclusive of dividends and transaction costs. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

Performance since inception is shown below:

perf_int'l

E-mail [email protected] or call 626-535-0630 to receive a fact sheet for this portfolio.

Historical Performance Of the Dorsey, Wright Systematic Relative Strength International Strategy The performance represented in this brochure is based on monthly performance of the Systematic Relative Strength International Model. Net performance shown is total return net of management fees for all Dorsey, Wright & Associates managed accounts, managed for each complete quarter for each objective, regardless of levels of fixed income and cash in each account. The advisory fees are described in Part II of the adviser’s Form ADV. The starting values on 3/31/2006 are assigned an arbitrary value of 100 and statement portfolios are revalued on a trade date basis on the last day of each quarter. All returns since inception of actual Accounts are compared against the MSCI EAFE Total Return Index. The MSCI EAFE Total Return Index is a stock market index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the United States and Canada and is maintained by MSCI Barra. A list of all holdings over the past 12 months is available upon request. The performance information is based on data supplied by the Manager or from statistical services, reports, or other sources which the Manager believes are reliable. Definition of statistical terms: Performance: Net annualized performance. Volatility: Annualized standard deviation. Standard deviation shows how much variation or dispersion exists from the average value. Beta: A measure of systematic or market-related risk. Alpha: A measure of non-market return associated with the portfolio. See Modern Portfolio Theory for more information. Correlation: Compresses covariance into a range of +/- 1. A negative correlation indicates an inverse relationship whereas a positive correlation is indicative of a direct relationship. Annual turnover: An annualized measure of the percentage of the portfolio that was traded. There are risks inherent in international investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain clients. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In all securities trading, there is a potential for loss as well as profit. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance as shown. Investors should have long-term financial objectives when working with Dorsey, Wright & Associates.

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Diversification by Style Box or by Risk Factor?

August 11, 2014

Andrew Ang, in his new book Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing, identifies a key obstacle for many wealthy investors–specifically business owners—who liquidate and then look to invest those assets in the financial markets:

It can be counterintuitive for rich individuals to realize that preserving wealth involves holding well-diversified portfolios that have exposure to different factor risk premiums. They created their wealth by doing just the opposite: holding highly concentrated positions in a single business.

We’ve probably all heard someone make the case against diversification by saying something along the lines of, “My plan has been to put all my eggs in one basket and to watch that basket very closely!” However, at some point most people have a desire to diversify their risks.

Two of the most rigorously tested risk factors are momentum and low volatility. Compelling research suggests that both factors have demonstrated the ability to outperform over time and these two factors have the added benefit of having a relatively low correlation to one another. For example, consider the correlation of the PowerShares DWA Momentum ETF (PDP) and the PowerShares S&P; 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) since 2011, the inception for SPLV.

correlations

Source: Yahoo! Finance and iShares. The correlations above are based on monthly total returns, inclusive of dividends, but not inclusive of transaction costs. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

While much of the industry is still focused on seeking diversification between style boxes, I believe investors would be better served to start focusing on diversification between risk factors, like momentum and low volatility. As you can see, there has been much lower correlation between PDP and SPLV than there has been between Growth and Value over this time.

Dorsey Wright & Associates is the index provider for the PowerShares DWA Momentum ETF (PDP).

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Weekly RS Recap

August 11, 2014

The table below shows the performance of a universe of mid and large cap U.S. equities, broken down by relative strength decile and then compared to the universe return. Those at the top of the ranks are those stocks which have the best intermediate-term relative strength. Relative strength strategies buy securities that have strong intermediate-term relative strength and hold them as long as they remain strong.

Last week’s performance (8/4/14 – 8/8/14) is as follows:

avg perf

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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