When Ignorance May Not Be Bliss

August 12, 2014

In case there was any question about whether or not investors need advice (Forbes):

The stock market was up 30% in 2013, but if you’re like most investors, that’s news to you.

A new Gallup survey shows that nine out of ten people are unaware that the stock market climbed 30% last year. Most believe that stocks performed well, just not that well — 17% say stocks increased 20% and 37% say stocks increased 10%. Three out of ten people thought stocks stayed the same or decreased.

Investors-Estimates-of-2013

The bull market is well into its fifth year, but many Americans haven’t reaped the gains.

Just 52% of Americans were invested in the stock market last year, down from 62% in 2008, according to a previous Gallup survey. Another study pegs equity allocations at their lowest levels over the last half century. This includes workers who own equities through money invested in a 401(k) or other retirement account.

“Every bull market, such as the one the country is now experiencing, has the bear’s shadow hanging over it. And that shadow tends to grow bigger and darker with every additional month of market gains,” notes Gallup.

What if investors were handed $10,000 to save or invest now? Just 41% would put it in the stock market, while 36% would keep it in cash and 20% would buy a CD.

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Relative Strength Spread

August 12, 2014

The chart below is the spread between the relative strength leaders and relative strength laggards (universe of mid and large cap stocks). When the chart is rising, relative strength leaders are performing better than relative strength laggards. As of 8/11/14:

spread 08.12.14

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Indexes have no fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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