SMA Performance

September 3, 2014

August was a strong month for relative strength as six of our seven Systematic RS portfolios outperformed their benchmarks. Detailed performance is shown below:

To receive the brochure for these portfolios, please e-mail [email protected] or call 626-535-0630. Click here to see the list of platforms where these separately managed accounts are currently available.

Total account performance shown is total return net of management fees for all Dorsey, Wright & Associates managed accounts, managed for each complete quarter for each objective, regardless of levels of fixed income and cash in each account. Information is from sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made to its accuracy. This should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance should not be considered indicative of future results.

The S&P; 500 is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 leading companies publicly traded in the U.S. stock market, as defined by Standard & Poor’s. The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad base index, maintained by Barclays Capital, and is used to represent investment grade bonds being traded in the United States. The 60/40 benchmark is 60% S&P; 500 Total Return Index and 40% Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. The MSCI EAFE Total Return Index is a stock market index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the United States and Canada and is maintained by MSCI Barra. The Dow Jones Moderate Portfolio Index is a global asset allocation benchmark. 60% of the benchmark is represented equally with nine Dow Jones equity indexes. 40% of the benchmark is represented with five Barclays Capital fixed income indexes.

Each investor should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks and expenses of any Exchange-Traded Fund (“ETF”) prior to investing. Before investing in an ETF investors should obtain and carefully read the relevant prospectus and documents the issuer has filed with the SEC. ETFs may result in the layering of fees as ETFs impose their own advisory and other fees. To obtain more complete information about the product the documents are publicly available for free via EDGAR on the SEC website (http://www.sec.gov)

There are risks inherent in international investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain clients. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities.

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Swedroe on Momentum

September 3, 2014

Larry Swedroe on Momentum:

Momentum is a well-established, empirical fact. Its premium is evident in more than 87 years of domestic market data, in more than 20 years of out-of-sample evidence beginning from the time of its original discovery, in statistics from 40 other countries, and in the performance of more than a dozen different asset classes.

In fact, the momentum premium has been both larger and more persistent in the U.S. since 1927 than the other three stock premiums—equity, size and value. Over the last 87 calendar years (1927-2013), the annual momentum premium was 8.4 percent. It was positive in 78 percent of the years during that period.

By comparison, the figures for the equity, size and value premiums are not quite as strong or persistent. Over the same time frame, the equity premium was 8.2 percent, and it was positive in 68 percent of those years; the size premium was 3.1 percent, and it was positive in 56 percent of those years; and the value premium was 4.9 percent, while showing a positive return in 62 percent of those years.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. A momentum strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.

HT: Abnormal Returns

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DWA ETFs

September 3, 2014

Shown below are Point & Figure charts of the 16 ETFs for which Dorsey Wright & Associates is the index provider (as of 9/3/14):

pdp

dwas

dwaq

piz

pie

pez

pfi

prn-chart

psl

ptf

pth

pui

pxi

pyz

fv

ifv

The information found on Dorsey, Wright & Associates’ Web Pages has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by Dorsey, Wright and Associates, LLC (DWA) or the information provider and DWA and the information providers make no representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. This report or chart does not purport to be a complete description of the securities or commodities, market or developments to which reference is made. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in concert.

Each investor should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks and expenses of any Exchange-Traded Fund (“ETF”) prior to investing. Before investing in an ETF investors should obtain and carefully read the relevant prospectus and documents the issuer has filed with the SEC. To obtain more complete information about the product the documents are publicly available for free via EDGAR on the SEC website (http://www.sec.gov).

PDP: Prior to the fund inception date (3/1/07), chart is created using extrapolated index data.

DWAS: Prior to the fund inception date (7/19/2012), the chart is created from extrapolated index data.

DWAQ: Prior to fund inception date (4/30/03), chart is created using extrapolated index data (DYO), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA NASDAQ Technical Leaders Index (TLNASDAQ)

PIZ: Prior to the fund inception date (12/28/2007), chart is created using extrapolated index data.Prior to the fund inception date (12/28/2007), chart is created using extrapolated index data.

PEZ: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZZK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Consumer Cyclicals Technical Leaders Index (TLCONCYC)

PFI: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZFK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Financial Technical Leaders Index (TLFINANCE)

PRN: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZLK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Industrials Technical Leaders Index (TLINDUST)

PSL: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZSK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Consumer Staples Technical Leaders Index (TLCONSTA)

PTF: Prior to the fund inception date (10/12/2006), chart is created using extrapolated index data. and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Technology Technical Leaders Index (TLTECH)

PTH: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZXK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Healthcare Technical Leaders Index (TLHEALTH)

PUI: Prior to fund inception date (10/25/05), chart is created using extrapolated index data (DWU), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Utilities Technical Leaders Index (TLUTIL)

PXI: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZKK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Energy Technical Leaders Index (TLENERGY)

PYZ: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZBK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Basic Materials Technical Leaders Index (TLBASMAT)

FV: Prior to the fund inception date (3/6/2014), chart is created using extrapolated index data (FTRUST5)

IFV: Prior to the fund inception date (7/23/2014), chart is created using extrapolated index data.

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Point and Figure RS Signal Implementation

September 2, 2014

Over the course of the summer we published three different whitepapers looking at point and figure relative strength signals on a universe of domestic equities. In the first two papers, we demonstrated the power of using PnF RS signals and columns to find high momentum stocks, and then we looked at the optimal box size for calculating relative strength. If you were on vacation and happened to miss one of the first two papers they can be found here and here.

The third paper examines the performance profiles you can reasonably expect by following a process designed around point and figure relative strength. You can download a pdf version of the paper here. Most momentum research focuses on performance based on purchasing large baskets of stocks, which is impractical for non-institutional investors. Once we know that the entire basket of securities outperforms over time the next logical question is, “What happens if I just invest in a subset of the most highly ranked momentum securities?” To answer this question, we created portfolios of randomly drawn securities and ran the process through time. Each portfolio held 50 stocks at all times, which we believe is a realistic number for retail investors. Each month we sold any security in the portfolio that was not one of the top relative strength ranks. For every security that was sold, we purchased a new security at random from the high relative strength group that wasn’t already held in the portfolio. We ran this process 100 times to create 100 different portfolio return streams that were all different. The one thing all 100 portfolios had in common was they were always 100% invested in 50 stocks from the high relative strength group. But the exact 50 stocks could be totally different from portfolio to portfolio.

The graph below taken from the paper shows the range of outcomes from our trials. From year to year you never know if your portfolio is going to outperform, but over the length of the entire test period all 100 trials outperformed the broad market benchmark.

(Click To Enlarge)

We believe this speaks to the robust nature of the momentum factor, and also demonstrates the breadth of the returns available in the highest ranked names. It wasn’t just a small handful of names that drove the returns. As long as you stick to the process of selling the underperforming securities and replacing them with stocks having better momentum ranks there is a high probability of outperformance over time. Over short time horizons the outperformance can appear random, and two people following the same process can wind up with very different returns. But over long time horizons the process works very well.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. A momentum strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.

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Weekly RS Recap

September 2, 2014

The table below shows the performance of a universe of mid and large cap U.S. equities, broken down by relative strength decile and then compared to the universe return. Those at the top of the ranks are those stocks which have the best intermediate-term relative strength. Relative strength strategies buy securities that have strong intermediate-term relative strength and hold them as long as they remain strong.

Last week’s performance (8/25/14 – 8/29/14) is as follows:

perf 09.02.14

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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Power 4 Model Holdings

September 2, 2014

Current holdings of the DWA PowerShares Sector 4 Model are shown below:

power 4

Click here for model details.

The information contained herein has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this material without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities, commodities or exchange traded products. This document does not purport to be complete description of the securities or commodities, markets or developments to which reference is made.

The PowerShares DWA Sector Portfolios are calculated by NYSE Euronext or its affiliates (NYSE Euronext). The PowerShares DWA Sector Momentum ETFs, which are based on Dorsey Wright indexes, are not issued, endorsed, sold, or promoted by NYSE Euronext, and NYSE Euronext makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

NYSE EURONEXT MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE DORSEY WRIGHT INDEXES OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL NYSE EURONEXT HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

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