Are Momentum Stocks “Cheap?”

December 4, 2015

Interesting exchange in this paper on momentum by Man. The response by Nick Barberis, professor of Finance at Yale, is of particular interest given that conventional wisdom is that momentum stocks are often “overvalued.” According to his response, that momentum stocks are often rising for the very reason that they are “cheap.”

AHL/MSS: Do momentum investors do harm because they do not follow fundamental information?

Doug Greenig: If there are too many momentum investors relative to fundamental investors, capital allocations might get out of whack.

Cam Harvey: Policy makers might choose fundamental traders over momentum traders as value trading moves prices to where they should be, whereas momentum might move them away. Prices moving away from fundamental values could have a social cost. At the same time, momentum traders are good for providing liquidity.

Sandy Rattray: Value investing feels right. It’s a good thing to be doing. Finding cheap stocks is seen as a valuable skill. A value investor is seen to stand on higher moral ground than momentum investors.

Nick Barberis: But value and momentum may be more similar than they appear. According to under-reaction theories of momentum – for example, the slow diffusion of information theory – a stock that has been trending up is also a cheap stock: not all information about it has been absorbed into the price.

HT: Jerry Parker

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RS in Rising Rate Environments

December 4, 2015

With wide expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates this month, it is worth considering how a momentum strategy tends to perform in a rising interest rate environment. Invesco PowerShares addressed this topic in their September 2015 paper Harnessing the Power of Factor Investing. According to their findings, momentum was able generate excess returns in both rising rate and declining rate environments. However, the excess returns were higher in rising rate environments.

rising rate_12.04.15

falling rate_12.04.15

Some thoughts on why this pattern may occur:

  • By the time rates rise you are typically well off the market bottom and well out of a recession. On average, stocks are at least fairly valued at that point and there aren’t a ton of bargains to be had that are really cheap for obvious reasons. At that point investors look for growth and that is what momentum is good at picking up.
  • Late cycle also means fewer stocks participating in the rally, which is also good from a momentum perspective.
  • Good momentum stocks usually don’t have to rely on cheap financing (they can generate cash flow organically) so they don’t get crimped like value stocks do when rates rise.

While many seem to fear what affect a rising interest rate environment will have on stocks, it is worth remembering that rising rates have tended to be good for a momentum strategy.

The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.

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