Systematic RS Portfolios Update

April 4, 2016

Equity markets staged an impressive rally in March, putting broad indexes in reach of their all-time highs. For relative strength strategies, March was also a month where we started to once again see relative strength leaders perform favorably compared to relative strength laggards.

We also reached a couple noteworthy milestones for our family of Systematic RS Portfolios in March. First, our International portfolio reached a 10-year track record, having outperformed the MSCI EAFE by 6.08% annually on a net basis since its inception. Second, our Tactical Fixed Income portfolio reached a 3-year track record, having outperformed the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index by 1.35% annually on a net basis since its inception. Tactical Fixed Income also happens to be our best performing portfolio so far this year.

Detailed performance is shown below:

To receive the brochure for these portfolios, please e-mail [email protected] or call 626-535-0630. Click here to see the list of platforms where these separately managed accounts are currently available.

Total account performance shown is total return net of management fees for all Dorsey, Wright & Associates managed accounts, managed for each complete quarter for each objective, regardless of levels of fixed income and cash in each account. Information is from sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made to its accuracy. This should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance should not be considered indicative of future results. The S&P; 500 is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 leading companies publicly traded in the U.S. stock market, as defined by Standard & Poor’s. The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad base index, maintained by Barclays Capital, and is used to represent investment grade bonds being traded in the United States. The 60/40 benchmark is 60% S&P; 500 Total Return Index and 40% Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. The MSCI EAFE Total Return Index is a stock market index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the United States and Canada and is maintained by MSCI Barra. The Dow Jones Moderate Portfolio Index is a global asset allocation benchmark. 60% of the benchmark is represented equally with nine Dow Jones equity indexes. 40% of the benchmark is represented with five Barclays Capital fixed income indexes. Each investor should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks and expenses of any Exchange-Traded Fund (“ETF”) prior to investing. Before investing in an ETF investors should obtain and carefully read the relevant prospectus and documents the issuer has filed with the SEC. ETFs may result in the layering of fees as ETFs impose their own advisory and other fees. To obtain more complete information about the product the documents are publicly available for free via EDGAR on the SEC website (http://www.sec.gov) There are risks inherent in international investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain clients. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities.

Posted by:


Q2 2016 PowerShares DWA Momentum ETFs

April 4, 2016

The PowerShares DWA Momentum Indexes are reconstituted on a quarterly basis. These indexes are designed to evaluate their respective investment universes and build an index of stocks with superior relative strength characteristics. This quarter’s allocations are shown below.

PDP: PowerShares DWA Momentum ETF

DWAS: PowerShares DWA Small Cap Momentum ETF

DWAQ: PowerShares DWA NASDAQ Momentum ETF

PIZ: PowerShares DWA Developed Markets Momentum ETF

PIE: PowerShares DWA Emerging Markets Momentum ETF

Source: Dorsey Wright, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, and NASDAQ, Allocations subject to change

We also apply this momentum-indexing methodology on a sector level:

See www.powershares.com for more information.

The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.

Posted by:


Weekly RS Recap

April 4, 2016

The table below shows the performance of a universe of mid and large cap U.S. equities, broken down by relative strength decile and quartile and then compared to the universe return. Those at the top of the ranks are those stocks which have the best intermediate-term relative strength. Relative strength strategies buy securities that have strong intermediate-term relative strength and hold them as long as they remain strong.

Last week’s performance (3/28/16 – 4/1/16) is as follows:

RS laggards went back to lagging last week, although even the bottom quartile saw strong returns in absolute terms for the week.

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past or present recommendation. The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends, fees, or other expenses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

Posted by:


Corporate Profits and Stock Market Returns—It’s Complicated

April 4, 2016

There is never any shortage of big scary things to worry about when it comes to the stock market. Savita Subramanian from Bank of America recently weighed in on her current concerns on earnings growth:

Publicly traded companies have seen negative earnings growth two quarters in a row and there are no fundamental underpinnings for the rally, Savita Subramanian, BofAML’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, said on CNBC’s “Fast Money” this week.

“We are in a profits recession. There (are) no two ways around it,” said Subramanian, whose S&P; 500 price target of 2,000 is among the lowest on Wall Street. She is also concerned about how Federal Reserve monetary policy could affect stocks.

“You have the Fed embarking on a long, slow tightening cycle. Tightening into a profits recession doesn’t sound like anything to throw a big party about,” she said.

Ben Carlson saw her comments and decided to take a closer look at the historical relationship between profit growth and stock market returns.

One of the biggest problems in the world of finance is that people make proclamations without backing it up with evidence. So I wanted to see what the historical relationship looks like between profit growth and stock market returns. Using Federal Reserve data on corporate profits, I looked back at the historical growth rate of profits by decade and compared them to that decade’s stock market returns (using the S&P; 500):

Now let’s break things down even further by market type:

(Although the S&P; 500 was up 6% per year in the 1966-1981 period, many consider this a sideways market because the Dow went nowhere from a price perspective and once you take inflation into account real returns were basically zero.)

There’s really not much of a discernible pattern that can be detected here. High profit growth has led to both high and low stock market returns throughout the post-WWII period. There were also times of low profit growth with high stock market returns.

The greatest profit growth was seen in two of the worst-performing stock market decades — the 1970s and 2000s. But those periods were markedly different as the 70s saw sky-high inflation with rising interest rates while the 2000s had low inflation and falling rates.

After accounting for inflation, the 1980s only saw profit growth of roughly 1.6%, but stocks returned more than 17% per year (12% real). The 1950s and 1960s saw one of the greatest bull markets of all-time, but profit growth was basically average. Profits growth has been non-existent during the latest bull market cycle, but stocks are up gangbusters anyways.

This may seem highly blasphemous to die hard fundamentalists who often fall into the trap of thinking that success in the stock market is mostly a matter of accounting. It is not. Rather, it all comes back to what investors are willing to pay for those earnings. Thus the need for technical analysis!

Posted by: