DWA ETFs

August 5, 2014

Shown below are Point & Figure charts of the 16 ETFs for which Dorsey Wright & Associates is the index provider (as of 8/5/14):

pdp DWA ETFs

dwas DWA ETFs

dwaq DWA ETFs

piz DWA ETFs

pie DWA ETFs

pez DWA ETFs

pfi DWA ETFs

prn chart DWA ETFs

psl DWA ETFs

ptf DWA ETFs

pth DWA ETFs

pui DWA ETFs

pxi DWA ETFs

pyz DWA ETFs

fv DWA ETFs

ifv DWA ETFs

The information found on Dorsey, Wright & Associates’ Web Pages has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by Dorsey, Wright and Associates, LLC (DWA) or the information provider and DWA and the information providers make no representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. This report or chart does not purport to be a complete description of the securities or commodities, market or developments to which reference is made. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in concert.

Each investor should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks and expenses of any Exchange-Traded Fund (“ETF”) prior to investing. Before investing in an ETF investors should obtain and carefully read the relevant prospectus and documents the issuer has filed with the SEC. To obtain more complete information about the product the documents are publicly available for free via EDGAR on the SEC website (http://www.sec.gov).

PDP: Prior to the fund inception date (3/1/07), chart is created using extrapolated index data.

DWAS: Prior to the fund inception date (7/19/2012), the chart is created from extrapolated index data.

DWAQ: Prior to fund inception date (4/30/03), chart is created using extrapolated index data (DYO), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA NASDAQ Technical Leaders Index (TLNASDAQ)

PIZ: Prior to the fund inception date (12/28/2007), chart is created using extrapolated index data.Prior to the fund inception date (12/28/2007), chart is created using extrapolated index data.

PEZ: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZZK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Consumer Cyclicals Technical Leaders Index (TLCONCYC)

PFI: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZFK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Financial Technical Leaders Index (TLFINANCE)

PRN: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZLK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Industrials Technical Leaders Index (TLINDUST)

PSL: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZSK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Consumer Staples Technical Leaders Index (TLCONSTA)

PTF: Prior to the fund inception date (10/12/2006), chart is created using extrapolated index data. and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Technology Technical Leaders Index (TLTECH)

PTH: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZXK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Healthcare Technical Leaders Index (TLHEALTH)

PUI: Prior to fund inception date (10/25/05), chart is created using extrapolated index data (DWU), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Utilities Technical Leaders Index (TLUTIL)

PXI: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZKK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Energy Technical Leaders Index (TLENERGY)

PYZ: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZBK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Basic Materials Technical Leaders Index (TLBASMAT)

FV: Prior to the fund inception date (3/6/2014), chart is created using extrapolated index data (FTRUST5)

IFV: Prior to the fund inception date (7/23/2014), chart is created using extrapolated index data.

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Relative Strength Spread

August 5, 2014

The chart below is the spread between the relative strength leaders and relative strength laggards (universe of mid and large cap stocks). When the chart is rising, relative strength leaders are performing better than relative strength laggards. As of 8/4/14:

spread 08.05.14 Relative Strength Spread

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Indexes have no fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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Risk Aversion in Squirrels (And Humans)

August 4, 2014

Who knew we had so much in common with squirrels! Bob Seawright has a fun summary of a study of squirrels that tried to find out what causes a squirrel to flee. After all, we’ve all had the experience of walking right by a squirrel and they don’ t seem to be the least bit bothered. However, make eye contact with a squirrel and off they go. Read his whole article for the methods of the study, but the key conclusion are as follows:

The key point is that it makes a big difference whether or not people are looking at the squirrels, although staying on the footpaths also keeps them calmer. In truly dreadful scientific prose that tries desperately to sound authoritative, the researchers conclude as follows:

“We have identified cues that are likely to be important for risk perception by an urban animal species monitoring its environment. Together with direction of attention of people, urban squirrels were more reactive to pedestrians that showed a divergence from ‘usual’ behaviour (e.g. pedestrians entering areas which are usually human-free), even when not associated with closer approach or changes in speed. In addition to being arboreal (which can include use of anthropogenic structures), which minimizes vulnerability to diurnal terrestrial ‘predators’ (see Herr, Schley & Roper, 2009), general trophic and social flexibility (Baumgartner, 1943; Don, 1983; Koprowski, 2005) may help explain why eastern grey squirrels are successful urban adapters.”

What they mean is that squirrels pay attention to unusual human behavior and eye contact. When they see them, they bolt.

Seawright then skilfully makes the connection to investor behavior:

These squirrels are a pretty good metaphor for us, but perhaps not in the way we might expect. Squirrels, like humans, are highly risk averse. We humans feel a loss two to two-and-a-half times more strongly than we feel a comparable gain. In the wild, that makes perfect sense. If the squirrels run away too readily, they may lose a nut or two, but little else. But if the varmint sticks around too long, it can get eaten by a predator. That’s a loss that is permanent and unrecoverable.

We are remarkably like squirrels. If markets are behaving as we expect, we’re fine. When they deviate from what we expect, we get concerned and pay special attention, ready to flee. And when we spend too much time looking head-on at what’s going on (as when the squirrels’ and the observers’ eyes meet in sweet communion)—perhaps checking our accounts online every day or, heaven forbid, watching one of the “business” channels, we tend to trade (read “bail”) far too often.

The research bears this tendency out. And, sadly, the professionals tend to flee as readily as their clients. The metaphor is a bit mixed, but if we have a good plan in place (a crucial “if”) and when the markets are wild, we’d be wise to “avert our eyes” and stay calm.

In the investment world, being too skittish—bailing out of the markets too readily—is generally much more dangerous to our success than holding on too long, especially when the applicable time horizon is a relatively long one. Staying the course through tough times requires that we deal with immediate pain for far-off gain, which is always very difficult for us. That makes this sort of situation that much tougher.

“Averting our eyes” only makes sense if we have a good plan in place. That is the value of consulting with a competent financial advisor. But, if that is in place, behaving like a squirrel is likely to end in disappointment.

squirrel Risk Aversion in Squirrels (And Humans)

Source: ThinkAdvisor.com

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Saving Earlier

August 4, 2014

More great research from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Click here for their latest piece How Much Should People Save? One of the more interesting parts of the research to me was the massive benefits of saving earlier and retiring later. Common sense, but the table below makes it clear how much easier retirement planning becomes when one starts early.

Table 5. Saving Earlier

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Weekly RS Recap

August 4, 2014

The table below shows the performance of a universe of mid and large cap U.S. equities, broken down by relative strength decile and quartile and then compared to the universe return. Those at the top of the ranks are those stocks which have the best intermediate-term relative strength. Relative strength strategies buy securities that have strong intermediate-term relative strength and hold them as long as they remain strong.

Last week’s performance (7/28/14 - 8/1/14) is as follows:

ranks 08.04.14 Weekly RS Recap

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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Power 4 Model Holdings

August 1, 2014

Current holdings of the DWA PowerShares Sector 4 Model are shown below:

power 42 Power 4 Model Holdings

Click here for model details.

The information contained herein has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this material without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities, commodities or exchange traded products. This document does not purport to be complete description of the securities or commodities, markets or developments to which reference is made.

The PowerShares DWA Sector Portfolios are calculated by NYSE Euronext or its affiliates (NYSE Euronext). The PowerShares DWA Sector Momentum ETFs, which are based on Dorsey Wright indexes, are not issued, endorsed, sold, or promoted by NYSE Euronext, and NYSE Euronext makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

NYSE EURONEXT MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE DORSEY WRIGHT INDEXES OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL NYSE EURONEXT HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

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Sector Performance

August 1, 2014

The chart below shows performance of US sectors over the trailing 12, 6, and 1 month(s). Performance updated through 7/31/14.

The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. Source: iShares

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Fund Flows

July 31, 2014

Mutual fund flow estimates are derived from data collected by The Investment Company Institute covering more than 95 percent of industry assets and are adjusted to represent industry totals.

This data is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation.

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High RS Diffusion Index

July 30, 2014

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.) As of 7/29/14.

The 10-day moving average of this indicator is 74% and the one-day reading is 62%.

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Indexes have no fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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A Wise Old Owl

July 29, 2014

The essence of relative strength:

A wise old owl lived in an oak. The more he saw the less he spoke. The less he spoke the more he heard. Why can’t we all be like that wise old bird?

HT: Patrick O’Shaughnessy

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Relative Strength Spread

July 29, 2014

The chart below is the spread between the relative strength leaders and relative strength laggards (universe of mid and large cap stocks). When the chart is rising, relative strength leaders are performing better than relative strength laggards. As of 7/28/14:

spread 07.29.14 Relative Strength Spread

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Indexes have no fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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Reality Check for Forecasting

July 28, 2014

I’d say this is a pretty compelling argument for trend following. As shown below, the average strategist forecast for the S&P 500 is routinely way off.

forecasts Reality Check for Forecasting

Source: WSJ

Rather than even attempt to forecast the unknowable, trend followers simply stay with the trend, until it is time to move on. See here, here, and here.

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Weekly RS Recap

July 28, 2014

The table below shows the performance of a universe of mid and large cap U.S. equities, broken down by relative strength decile and quartile and then compared to the universe return. Those at the top of the ranks are those stocks which have the best intermediate-term relative strength. Relative strength strategies buy securities that have strong intermediate-term relative strength and hold them as long as they remain strong.

Last week’s performance (7/21/14 - 7/25/14) is as follows:

ranks 07.28.14 Weekly RS Recap

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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Point and Figure Relative Strength Box Sizes

July 25, 2014

In June, we released Point and Figure Relative Strength Signals, by John Lewis, CMT. This white paper provided important insights into using PnF relative strength signals. The study included research covering the period 1990-2013.

Securities on a buy signal and in a column of X’s have the best intermediate and long term relative strength characteristics so that is the basket of securities we would expect to perform the best over time. That is certainly the case over time. Maintaining a portfolio of stocks on relative strength point and figure buy signals and in columns of X’s dramatically outperformed the other three point and figure relative strength states.

John has now written a follow-up white paper that analyzes a different aspect of PnF relative strength signals: Box Sizes. Click here to access Point and Figure Relative Strength Box Sizes. This paper addresses the frequently asked question, “What box size should I use?” and will help answer the question of why 6.50% box size is the default box size on the Dorsey Wright research database. This white paper also studies the period of 1990-2013. A summary table of the results is shown below:

box sizes Point and Figure Relative Strength Box Sizes

The data in Table 1 helps us determine what the equivalent of an intermediate term horizon is in terms of point and figure box sizes. Much like the time-based methods, the returns suffer when the box size is too small or too large. In the case of the former, the system picks up too much of the short term trading noise. In the case of the latter, too much has to happen in order for the point and figure chart to register a change. The sweet spot is in the 6.5% to 7.5% box size range. Using a 6.5% box size means that a security has to underperform the broad market by 19.5% in order to change columns and be shifted out of the group that qualifies as having the best relative strength. The large percentage reversal required may surprise many people, but relative price moves in the 20% to 25% range exhibit the best long term performance. The magnitude of these moves indicates how important it is to stick with a strong stock during the dynamic part of its price appreciation cycle. We have noticed over the years that stocks with strong momentum characteristics are often volatile and are prone to sharp pullbacks before continuing to new highs. Trying to “get out in front” of the trend change by using a smaller box size will certainly be a better method when the trend change happens, but the data indicates this is hard to predict .

Stay tuned for part three of this series of white papers which will likely be released next month.

A relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

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Unlucky Umberto

July 25, 2014

One reason to invest in our Global Macro portfolio: Decrease the chances that you are “Unlucky Umberto.” Click here to read more (NYT).

A brief description of our Global Macro portfolio is as follows:

This global tactical asset allocation strategy seeks to achieve meaningful risk diversification and investment returns. The strategy invests across multiple asset classes: Domestic Equities (long & inverse), International Equities (long & inverse), Fixed Income, Real Estate, Currencies, and Commodities. Exposure to each of these areas is achieved through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The idea of risk diversification is that by expanding the number of asset classes in the investment universe and by giving yourself the flexibility to overweight and underweight those asset classes based on relative strength an investor can seek to avoid extended periods of time with poor returns, especially in the later decades of an investor’s life.

E-mail [email protected] to request a brochure on our Global Macro portfolio.

A relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

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Sector Performance

July 25, 2014

The chart below shows performance of US sectors over the trailing 12, 6, and 1 month(s). Performance updated through 7/24/14.

sector 7.25.14 Sector Performance

The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. Source: iShares

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Fund Flows

July 24, 2014

Mutual fund flow estimates are derived from data collected by The Investment Company Institute covering more than 95 percent of industry assets and are adjusted to represent industry totals.

This data is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation.

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High RS Diffusion Index

July 23, 2014

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.) As of 7/22/14.

The 10-day moving average of this indicator is 80% and the one-day reading is 82%.

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Indexes have no fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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Systematic RS International

July 22, 2014

There may be some truth to the idea that there are greater opportunities for outperformance in less efficient markets. That has certainly been the case in our line-up of separately managed accounts. The strategy where we have been able to generate the largest margin of outperformance over time has been our Systematic RS International portfolio.

As shown below, this portfolio has outperformed its benchmark by 5.23 percent annually (net) since its inception of 3/31/2006.

As of 6/30/14

Characteristics of our Systematic RS International portfolio:

  • Invests in 30-40 international stocks out of an investment universe of several hundred American Depository Receipts (ADR’s).
  • Invests in Small, Mid, and Large-Cap stocks
  • Relative Strength determines which securities are bought and when they are sold
  • Minimum investment is $100,000
  • Available as a separately managed account on many different platforms.

Top holdings as of 6/30/14 are shown below:

To learn more about this portfolio, please call 626-535-0630 or e-mail [email protected].

Historical Performance of the Dorsey, Wright Systematic Relative Strength International Strategy

The performance represented in this brochure is based on monthly performance of the Systematic Relative Strength International Model. Net performance shown is total return net of management fees for all Dorsey, Wright & Associates managed accounts, managed for each complete quarter for each objective, regardless of levels of fixed income and cash in each account. The advisory fees are described in Part II of the adviser’s Form ADV. The starting values on 3/31/2006 are assigned an arbitrary value of 100 and statement portfolios are revalued on a trade date basis on the last day of each quarter. All returns since inception of actual Accounts are compared against the MSCI EAFE Total Return Index. The MSCI EAFE Total Return Index is a stock market index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the United States and Canada and is maintained by MSCI Barra. A list of all holdings over the past 12 months is available upon request. The performance information is based on data supplied by the Manager or from statistical services, reports, or other sources which the Manager believes are reliable.

There are risks inherent in international investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain clients. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. In all securities trading, there is a potential for loss as well as profit. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance as shown. Investors should have long-term financial objectives when working with Dorsey, Wright & Associates.

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Relative Strength Spread

July 22, 2014

The chart below is the spread between the relative strength leaders and relative strength laggards (universe of mid and large cap stocks). When the chart is rising, relative strength leaders are performing better than relative strength laggards. As of 7/21/14:

After a rough March and April, the RS Spread has stabilized and is showing signs of getting ready for a move higher.

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Indexes have no fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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Dorsey Wright Managed Accounts

July 22, 2014

Picture1 Dorsey Wright Managed Accounts

Our Systematic Relative Strength portfolios are available as managed accounts at a large and growing number of firms.

  • Wells Fargo Advisors (Global Macro available on the Masters/DMA Platforms)
  • Morgan Stanley (IMS Platform)
  • TD Ameritrade Institutional
  • UBS Financial Services (Aggressive and Core are available on the MAC Platform)
  • RBC Wealth Management (MAP Platform)
  • Raymond James (Outside Manager Platform)
  • Stifel Nicolaus
  • Kovack Securities
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Charles Schwab Institutional (Marketplace Platform)
  • Sterne Agee
  • Scott & Stringfellow
  • Envestnet UMA
  • Placemark
  • Scottrade Institutional
  • Janney Montgomery Scott
  • Robert W. Baird
  • Prospera
  • Oppenheimer (Star Platform)
  • SunTrust
  • Lockwood

Different Portfolios for Different Objectives: Descriptions of our seven managed accounts strategies are shown below. All managed accounts use relative strength as the primary investment selection factor.

Aggressive: This Mid and Large Cap U.S. equity strategy seeks to achieve long-term capital appreciation. It invests in securities that demonstrate powerful relative strength characteristics and requires that the securities maintain strong relative strength in order to remain in the portfolio.

Core: This Mid and Large Cap U.S. equity strategy seeks to achieve long-term capital appreciation. This portfolio invests in securities that demonstrate powerful relative strength characteristics and requires that the securities maintain strong relative strength in order to remain in the portfolio. This strategy tends to have lower turnover and higher tax efficiency than our Aggressive strategy.

Growth: This Mid and Large Cap U.S. equity strategy seeks to achieve long-term capital appreciation with some degree of risk mitigation. This portfolio invests in securities that demonstrate powerful relative strength characteristics and requires that the securities maintain strong relative strength in order to remain in the portfolio. This portfolio also has an equity exposure overlay that, when activated, allows the account to hold up to 50% cash if necessary.

International: This All-Cap International equity strategy seeks to achieve long-term capital appreciation through a portfolio of international companies in both developed and emerging markets. This portfolio invests in those securities with powerful relative strength characteristics and requires that the securities maintain strong relative strength in order to remain in the portfolio. Exposure to international markets is achieved through American Depository Receipts (ADRs).

Global Macro: This global tactical asset allocation strategy seeks to achieve meaningful risk diversification and investment returns. The strategy invests across multiple asset classes: Domestic Equities (long & inverse), International Equities (long & inverse), Fixed Income, Real Estate, Currencies, and Commodities. Exposure to each of these areas is achieved through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Balanced: This strategy includes equities from our Core strategy (see above) and high-quality U.S. fixed income in approximately a 60% equity / 40% fixed income mix. This strategy seeks to provide long-term capital appreciation and income with moderate volatility.

Tactical Fixed Income: This strategy seeks to provide current income and strong risk-adjusted fixed income returns. The strategy invests across multiple sectors of the fixed income market: U.S. government bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, high yield bonds, Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS), convertible bonds, and international bonds. Exposure to each of these areas is achieved through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Picture2 Dorsey Wright Managed Accounts

To receive fact sheets for any of the strategies above, please e-mail Andy Hyer at [email protected] or call 626-535-0630. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. An investor should carefully review our brochure and consult with their financial advisor before making any investments.

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Identifying Long-Term Trends

July 21, 2014

Businessweek’s recent article ”America’s Vanishing Bowling Alleys” caught my attention, in part because I had just taken my kids bowling.

The U.S. had 4,061 bowling centers in 2012, down 25 percent from 1998, the earliest year for which the U.S. Census collected consistent data. But the decline of the bowling alley probably started a lot earlier. The U.S. added 2,000 bowling alleys between the end of World War II and 1958, when the American Society of Planning Officials reported that “the bowling alley is fast becoming one of the most important—if not the most important—local center of participant sport and recreation.” (The growth spurt included a two-lane alley installed in the White House in 1947.)

I imagine that there are many avid bowlers who may have long predicted a resurgence in interest in bowling. That is kind of the way that it works when you have an emotional link to any activity (or stock for that matter), it becomes difficult to understand and accept the waning demand.

Long-term trends are pervasive, including in the stock market. I did a simple query on the Dorsey Wright research database for those stocks currently in the S&P 500 that have been on a PnF relative strength sell signal compared to the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index for over 10 years. The query resulted in the following 14 stocks:

I then made one change to the query to look for those stocks currently in the S&P 500 that have been on a PnF relative strength buy signal against the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index for over 10 years. The following 34 stocks were the result:

The beauty of Point & Figure relative strength analysis is that it provides an objective way to identify long-term trends—both positive and negative. When it comes to a recreational activity, like bowling, by all means allow yourself to get emotionally attached. However, when it comes to the stock market it is best to leave emotions out of it. Click here to learn more about PnF relative strength signals.

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. A relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

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Unrealistic Paradigms

July 21, 2014

The NYT unintentionally gives a great example of how NOT to analyze active equity strategies:

A new study by S.&P. Dow Jones Indices has some fresh and startling answers. The study, “Does Past Performance Matter? The Persistence Scorecard,” provides new arguments for investing in passively managed index funds — those that merely try to match market returns, not beat them.

Yet it won’t end the debate over active versus passive investing, because it also shows that a small number of active investors do manage to turn in remarkably good streaks for fairly long periods.

The study examined mutual fund performance in recent years. It found that very few funds have been consistently outstanding performers, and it corroborated the adage that past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns.

The S.&P. Dow Jones team looked at 2,862 mutual funds that had been operating for at least 12 months as of March 2010. Those funds were all broad, actively managed domestic stock funds. (The study excluded narrowly focused sector funds and leveraged funds that, essentially, used borrowed money to magnify their returns.)

The team selected the 25 percent of funds with the best performance over the 12 months through March 2010. Then the analysts asked how many of those funds — those in the top quarter for the original 12-month period — actually remained in the top quarter for the four succeeding 12-month periods through March 2014.

The answer was a vanishingly small number: Just 0.07 percent of the initial 2,862 funds managed to achieve top-quartile performance for those five successive years. If you do the math, that works out to just two funds. Put another way, 99.93 percent, or 2,860 of the 2,862 funds, failed the test.

Yes, that is right. Unless a fund was in the top quartile of performance for each of the four years it was considered a failure. The premise of the article is that investors should employ index funds unless they can find active strategies that outperform every year. Talk about setting yourself up for failure! I am aware of a number of investment factors that have generated outperformance over time (momentum, value, low volatility), but I am aware of nothing that outperforms every year.

The returns of those managers who are able to generate outperformance over time is rather lumpy. Consider the performance profile of the best performing managers of the 1990′s as an example:

Cambridge Associates, a money management consulting firm, did a study of the top-performing managers for the decade of the 1990s. In 2000, they could look back and see which managers had returns in the top quartile for the entire decade. Presumably, these top quartile managers are precisely the ones that clients would like to identify and hire. Cambridge found that 98% of those top managers had periods of underperformance extending three years or more. 98% is not a misprint! Even more striking, 68% of the top managers ended up in the bottom quartile for some three-year period and a full 40% of them visited the bottom decile during that ten years. Clearly, there are good and bad periods for every strategy.

Investing is challenging enough without setting yourself up for failure by placing unrealistic expectations on active managers. I have nothing against index funds. We use them in a number of our strategies and I think many investors can benefit from using them as part of their allocation. However, they are not a panacea.

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. A relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.

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Weekly RS Recap

July 21, 2014

The table below shows the performance of a universe of mid and large cap U.S. equities, broken down by relative strength decile and quartile and then compared to the universe return. Those at the top of the ranks are those stocks which have the best intermediate-term relative strength. Relative strength strategies buy securities that have strong intermediate-term relative strength and hold them as long as they remain strong.

Last week’s performance (7/14/14-7/18/14) is as follows:

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

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Cullen Roche on Michael Covel’s Podcast

July 18, 2014

Listen to the 12:45 - 15:20 mark in this interview. Cullen Roche has some key comments on pragmatism (something that we discuss regularly at DWA and a concept that separates winning investors from the rest).

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