Sector Performance

March 13, 2015

The chart below shows performance of US sectors over the trailing 12, 6, and 1 month(s).  Performance updated through 3/12/15.

sector Sector Performance

The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.    Source: iShares

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RS Chart of The Day

March 13, 2015

SPYVSEEM zpsltum4lws RS Chart of The Day

Point and Figure RS Charts are calculated by dividing one security by another and plotting the ratio on a PnF chart.  When the ratio is rising, it is plotted in a column of X’s and reflects the numerator outperforming the denominator.  Likewise, when the relative strength ratio is declining, it is plotted in a column of O’s and reflects the outperformance of the denominator.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.  This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  This post does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances which may be relevant to any product or security mentioned herein.  We are not soliciting any action based on this document.  It is for the general information of clients of Dorsey, Wright & Associates, LLC (“Dorsey, Wright & Associates”).  This document does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.  Before acting on any analysis, advice or recommendation in this document, clients should consider whether the security or strategy in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

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Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

March 12, 2015

As of the close, 3/12/15:

perf2 Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

Source: Yahoo! Finance

See www.powershares.com, www.ftportfolios.com, and www.arrowshares.com for more information.

The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  This post does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances which may be relevant to any product or security mentioned herein.  We are not soliciting any action based on this post.  It is for the general information of readers of this blog.  This post does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.  Before acting on any analysis, advice or recommendation in this post, investors should consider whether the security or strategy in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.  Dorsey Wright & Associates is the index provider for the above ETFs.

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The Fallacy That Bull Markets are Easy

March 12, 2015

Ben Carlson is spot on:

It’s easy to look back on it now and say how much of a lay-up it was to invest at the depths of the market crash in early 2009, but there weren’t too many people saying things were all clear at the time. Investors were scared and constantly waiting for the next shoe to drop. Ever since the recovery started people have been doubting it’s legitimacy. Pundits have been scaring people away with predictions of double dip recessions, hyperinflation and the collapse of the U.S. dollar.

Don’t let anyone tell you investing in this bull market has been easy. It hasn’t, but really, it never is.

A good portion of the money that we manage here at Dorsey Wright is in one of our Tactical Asset Allocation strategies.  One of the key features of these strategies is the systematic way that these models rank a broad range of asset classes and invest in or overweight the strongest asset classes.  We let relative strength dictate whether we are going to be invested in “defensive” asset classes or “offensive” asset classes.  Without a systematic investment process, it’s just as easy to mess up (often by sitting on the sidelines) in a bull market as it is in a bear market.

HT: Abnormal Returns

The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.

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DWA ETFs

March 12, 2015

Shown below are Point & Figure charts of the 17 ETFs for which Dorsey Wright & Associates is the index provider (as of 3/12/15):

pdp DWA ETFs

dwas DWA ETFs

dwaq DWA ETFs

piz DWA ETFs

pie DWA ETFs

pez DWA ETFs

pfi DWA ETFs

industrials DWA ETFs

psl DWA ETFs

ptf DWA ETFs

pth DWA ETFs

pui DWA ETFs

pxi DWA ETFs

pyz DWA ETFs

fv DWA ETFs

ifv DWA ETFs

dwat DWA ETFs

The information found on Dorsey, Wright & Associates’ Web Pages has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by Dorsey, Wright and Associates, LLC (DWA) or the information provider and DWA and the information providers make no representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities or commodities mentioned herein. This report or chart does not purport to be a complete description of the securities or commodities, market or developments to which reference is made. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in concert.

Each investor should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks and expenses of any Exchange-Traded Fund (“ETF”) prior to investing. Before investing in an ETF investors should obtain and carefully read the relevant prospectus and documents the issuer has filed with the SEC.  To obtain more complete information about the product the documents are publicly available for free via EDGAR on the SEC website (http://www.sec.gov).

PDP: Prior to the fund inception date (3/1/07), chart is created using extrapolated index data.

DWAS: Prior to the fund inception date (7/19/2012), the chart is created from extrapolated index data.

DWAQ:  Prior to fund inception date (4/30/03), chart is created using extrapolated index data (DYO), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA NASDAQ Technical Leaders Index (TLNASDAQ)

PIZ: Prior to the fund inception date (12/28/2007), chart is created using extrapolated index data.Prior to the fund inception date (12/28/2007), chart is created using extrapolated index data.

PEZ: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZZK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Consumer Cyclicals Technical Leaders Index (TLCONCYC)

PFI: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZFK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Financial Technical Leaders Index (TLFINANCE)

PRN: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZLK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Industrials Technical Leaders Index (TLINDUST)

PSL: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZSK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Consumer Staples Technical Leaders Index (TLCONSTA)

PTF: Prior to the fund inception date (10/12/2006), chart is created using extrapolated index data. and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Technology Technical Leaders Index (TLTECH)

PTH: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZXK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Healthcare Technical Leaders Index (TLHEALTH)

PUI: Prior to fund inception date (10/25/05), chart is created using extrapolated index data (DWU), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Utilities Technical Leaders Index (TLUTIL)

PXI: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZKK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Energy Technical Leaders Index (TLENERGY)

PYZ: Prior to fund inception date (10/12/06), chart is created using extrapolated index data (EZBK), and the fund tracked this index through 2/18/14. Effective 2/19/14, the fund changed the index that it tracks to DWA Basic Materials Technical Leaders Index (TLBASMAT)

FV: Prior to the fund inception date (3/6/2014), chart is created using extrapolated index data (FTRUST5)

IFV: Prior to the fund inception date (7/23/2014), chart is created using extrapolated index data.

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Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

March 11, 2015

As of the close, 3/11/15:

performance Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

Source: Yahoo! Finance

See www.powershares.com, www.ftportfolios.com, and www.arrowshares.com for more information.

The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  This post does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances which may be relevant to any product or security mentioned herein.  We are not soliciting any action based on this post.  It is for the general information of readers of this blog.  This post does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.  Before acting on any analysis, advice or recommendation in this post, investors should consider whether the security or strategy in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.  Dorsey Wright & Associates is the index provider for the above ETFs.

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High RS Diffusion Index

March 11, 2015

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.)  As of 3/10/15.

diffusion1 High RS Diffusion Index

The 10-day moving average of this indicator is 77% and the one-day reading is 65%.

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation.  The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.   Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Indexes have no fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. 

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Relative Strength Spread

March 10, 2015

The chart below is the spread between the relative strength leaders and relative strength laggards (universe of mid and large cap stocks).  When the chart is rising, relative strength leaders are performing better than relative strength laggards.    As of 3/9/15:

spread 03.10.15 Relative Strength Spread

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation.  The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.   Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Indexes have no fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. 

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Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

March 9, 2015

As of the close, 3/9/15:

perf 03.09.15 Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

Source: Yahoo! Finance

See www.powershares.com, www.ftportfolios.com, and www.arrowshares.com for more information.

The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  This post does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances which may be relevant to any product or security mentioned herein.  We are not soliciting any action based on this post.  It is for the general information of readers of this blog.  This post does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.  Before acting on any analysis, advice or recommendation in this post, investors should consider whether the security or strategy in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.  Dorsey Wright & Associates is the index provider for the above ETFs.

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Can a Quant Model Be Trusted?

March 9, 2015

Can a quant model really be trusted?

For all kinds of reasons, investment managers tend to find quantitative models to be interesting, but insufficient.  They want to have access to the outputs of quantitative rankings, but then to only use that output as one consideration among many when making the ultimate decision about what to buy or sell.  Not surprisingly, human emotion ends up getting the biggest say.

Maybe, there are some problems with that approach.  Consider the following study (Dresdner Kleinwort Macro Research):

The first study I want to discuss is a classic in the field.  It centers on the diagnosis of whether someone is neurotic or psychotic.  A patient suffering psychosis has lost touch with the external world; whereas someone suffering neurosis is in touch with the external world but suffering from internal emotional distress, which may be immobilizing.  The treatments for the two conditions are very different, so the diagnosis is not one to be taken lightly.

The standard test to distinguish the two is the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI).  This consists of around 600 statements with which the patient must express either agreement or disagreement.  The statements range from “At times I think I am no good at all” to “I like mechanics magazines”.  Fairly obviously, those feeling depressed are much more likely to agree with the first statement than those in an upbeat mood.  More bizarrely, those suffering paranoia are more likely to enjoy mechanics magazines than the rest of us!

In 1968, Lewis Goldberg obtained access to more than 1000 patients’ MMPI test responses and final diagnoses as neurotic or psychotic.  he developed a simple statistical formula, based on 10 MMPI scores, to predict the final diagnosis.  His model was roughly 70% accurate when applied out of sample.

Goldberg then gave MMPI scores to experienced and inexperienced clinical psychologists and asked them to diagnose the patient.  As the chart below shows, the simple quant rule significantly outperformed even the best of the psychologists.

hit rate Can a Quant Model Be Trusted?

Even when the results of the rules’ predictions were made available to the psychologists, they still underperformed the model.  This is a very important point: much as we all like to think we can add something to the quant model output, the truth is that very often quant models represent a ceiling in performance (from which we detract) rather than a floor (to which we can add).

The Dresdner Kleinworth research finds the same conclusions in the realms of baseball, wine, university admissions, and criminal recidivism.  Could it also apply to investment managers?

That is a pretty hard pill to swallow for investment managers, who as a group, don’t lack for self-confidence.  Yet, for those investment managers who truly understand the quantitative model, who built the quantitative model, who have stress-tested the model, and who are using an adaptive factor (like relative strength), strict reliance upon the model may very well represent “the ceiling in performance.”

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Weekly RS Recap

March 9, 2015

The table below shows the performance of a universe of mid and large cap U.S. equities, broken down by relative strength decile and quartile and then compared to the universe return.  Those at the top of the ranks are those stocks which have the best intermediate-term relative strength.  Relative strength strategies buy securities that have strong intermediate-term relative strength and hold them as long as they remain strong.

Last week’s performance (3/2/15 – 3/6/15) is as follows:

ranks Weekly RS Recap

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation.  The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. 

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RS Chart of The Day

March 6, 2015

SPYVSEEM zpsltum4lws RS Chart of The Day

Point and Figure RS Charts are calculated by dividing one security by another and plotting the ratio on a PnF chart.  When the ratio is rising, it is plotted in a column of X’s and reflects the numerator outperforming the denominator.  Likewise, when the relative strength ratio is declining, it is plotted in a column of O’s and reflects the outperformance of the denominator.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.  This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  This post does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances which may be relevant to any product or security mentioned herein.  We are not soliciting any action based on this document.  It is for the general information of clients of Dorsey, Wright & Associates, LLC (“Dorsey, Wright & Associates”).  This document does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.  Before acting on any analysis, advice or recommendation in this document, clients should consider whether the security or strategy in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

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Market Timing with CAPE

March 5, 2015

How worried should you be when you hear someone say that the market is overvalued?

Wesley Gray at Alpha Architect takes a deep dive into the topic of timing the market using CAPE, Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE ratio in a recent post.  His results should give pause to even he most strident market timing fundamentalist.  He also looked at market timing using simple trend following (trend following performed better!).  His methods are described below (study covered the period 1/1/1947 – 1/31/2015):

To create our “valuation-timing” indicator, every month we identify the 99 percentile valuations using rolling 5-, 10-, and 20-year look-back periods. Our trading rule is simple: if the current market valuation is greater or equal to the 99 percentile measure, we invest in the risk-free rate (short-term treasury bills), otherwise, we stay invested.

We compare the valuation-timing indicator to a monthly-assessed simple moving-average (MA) trading rule, and a buy-and-hold strategy. The buy-and-hold strategy is straightforward, and the MA indicator is simple: if the current market price is lower than the 12 month moving average, we invest in the risk-free rate (short-term treasury bills), otherwise, we stay invested.

Our conclusion is counterintuitive, but not entirely surprising:

Strategy Legend:
  • SP500 = S&P 500 Total Return Index
  • LTR = The Merrill Lynch 10-year U.S. Treasury Futures Total Return Index
  • Rolling 5 year 99perc CAPE= Timing signal uses the 99th percentile valuation metric using rolling 5 year look-back periods.
  • Rolling 10 year 99perc CAPE = Timing signal uses the 99th percentile valuation metric using rolling 10 year look-back periods.
  • Rolling 20 year 99perc CAPE= Timing signal uses the 99th percentile valuation metric using rolling 20 year look-back periods.
  • (1,12) MA= If last month’s price is above the past 12 month average, invest in the S&P 500; otherwise, buy U.S. Treasury Bills (RF).

alpha architect Market Timing with CAPE

The results are hypothetical results and are NOT an indicator of future results and do NOT represent returns that any investor actually attained. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect management or trading fees, and one cannot invest directly in an index. Additional information regarding the construction of these results is available upon request.

Conclusion

There is no evidence to support the use of “valuation-timing,” which performs similarly to buy-and-hold strategies (after costs it would we much worse). There is nothing magical about the 99th percentile. Trend-following, at least historically, seems to more effective.

Perhaps there are more convoluted, complex, and data-optimized ways in which we can leverage overall market valuations to help us time markets. We haven’t found any, but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Please share.

Pretty shocking results.  If you can’t even successfully identify overvalued markets when a market is in the 99th valuation percentile, then why even pay any attention to valuation measures at all?  If someone wants to be bearish, there is always some seemingly plausible reason and CAPE valuation measures are an often-cited reason.  However, Gray’s study is a solid takedown of the idea that CAPE can be effectively used as a way to get out of the market at the right time.  As pointed out in his study, a simple trend following method worked better.  Perhaps, an even more promising approach is a relative strength-driven Tactical Asset Allocation strategy as is detailed in this white paper by our own John Lewis.

I agree with a recent tweet by Cullen Roche:

FYI, no one knows how “expensive” the market really is or how “expensive” it really should be.

A reality that investors would do well to embrace.

The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investment sand strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.

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RS Chart of The Day

March 5, 2015

 spyvsiyr zpsdtfqtva9 RS Chart of The Day

Point and Figure RS Charts are calculated by dividing one security by another and plotting the ratio on a PnF chart.  When the ratio is rising, it is plotted in a column of X’s and reflects the numerator outperforming the denominator.  Likewise, when the relative strength ratio is declining, it is plotted in a column of O’s and reflects the outperformance of the denominator.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.  This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  This post does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances which may be relevant to any product or security mentioned herein.  We are not soliciting any action based on this document.  It is for the general information of clients of Dorsey, Wright & Associates, LLC (“Dorsey, Wright & Associates”).  This document does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.  Before acting on any analysis, advice or recommendation in this document, clients should consider whether the security or strategy in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

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Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

March 5, 2015

As of the close, 3/5/15:

perf1 Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

Source: Yahoo! Finance

See www.powershares.com, www.ftportfolios.com, and www.arrowshares.com for more information.

The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  This post does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances which may be relevant to any product or security mentioned herein.  We are not soliciting any action based on this post.  It is for the general information of readers of this blog.  This post does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.  Before acting on any analysis, advice or recommendation in this post, investors should consider whether the security or strategy in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.  Dorsey Wright & Associates is the index provider for the above ETFs.

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High RS Diffusion Index

March 5, 2015

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.)  As of 3/4/15.

diffusion High RS Diffusion Index

The 10-day moving average of this indicator is 81% and the one-day reading is 77%.

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation.  The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.   Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Indexes have no fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. 

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Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

March 3, 2015

As of the close, 3/3/15:

perf 03.03.15 Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

Source: Yahoo! Finance

See www.powershares.com, www.ftportfolios.com, and www.arrowshares.com for more information.

The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  This post does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances which may be relevant to any product or security mentioned herein.  We are not soliciting any action based on this post.  It is for the general information of readers of this blog.  This post does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.  Before acting on any analysis, advice or recommendation in this post, investors should consider whether the security or strategy in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.  Dorsey Wright & Associates is the index provider for the above ETFs.

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RS Chart of The Day

March 3, 2015

SPYVSAGG zpstfproav4 RS Chart of The Day

Point and Figure RS Charts are calculated by dividing one security by another and plotting the ratio on a PnF chart.  When the ratio is rising, it is plotted in a column of X’s and reflects the numerator outperforming the denominator.  Likewise, when the relative strength ratio is declining, it is plotted in a column of O’s and reflects the outperformance of the denominator.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.  This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  This post does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances which may be relevant to any product or security mentioned herein.  We are not soliciting any action based on this document.  It is for the general information of clients of Dorsey, Wright & Associates, LLC (“Dorsey, Wright & Associates”).  This document does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.  Before acting on any analysis, advice or recommendation in this document, clients should consider whether the security or strategy in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

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SMA Performance Update

March 3, 2015

The equity markets continue to power higher and our Systematic RS portfolios are capitalizing on the generally favorable environment.  Six of our seven strategies are ahead of their benchmarks so far in 2015.  Detailed performance is shown below.

net performance SMA Performance Update

To receive the brochure for these portfolios, please e-mail andy@dorseywright.com or call 626-535-0630.  Click here to see the list of platforms where these separately managed accounts are currently available.

Total account performance shown is total return net of management fees for all Dorsey, Wright & Associates managed accounts, managed for each complete quarter for each objective, regardless of levels of fixed income and cash in each account.  Information is from sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made to its accuracy.  This should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.  Past performance should not be considered indicative of future results.   The S&P 500 is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 leading companies publicly traded in the U.S. stock market, as defined by Standard & Poor’s.  The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad base index, maintained by Barclays Capital, and is used to represent investment grade bonds being traded in the United States.  The 60/40 benchmark is 60% S&P 500 Total Return Index and 40% Barclays Aggregate Bond Index.  The MSCI EAFE Total Return Index is a stock market index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the United States and Canada and is maintained by MSCI Barra.  The Dow Jones Moderate Portfolio Index is a global asset allocation benchmark.  60% of the benchmark is represented equally with nine Dow Jones equity indexes.  40% of the benchmark is represented with five Barclays Capital fixed income indexes.  Each investor should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks and expenses of any Exchange-Traded Fund (“ETF”) prior to investing. Before investing in an ETF investors should obtain and carefully read the relevant prospectus and documents the issuer has filed with the SEC.  ETFs may result in the layering of fees as ETFs impose their own advisory and other fees.  To obtain more complete information about the product the documents are publicly available for free via EDGAR on the SEC website (http://www.sec.gov)  There are risks inherent in international investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain clients. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities.

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Quote of the Week

March 3, 2015

When you talk, you are only repeating what you already know; But when you listen, you may learn something new.  —Dalai Lama

Very applicable to the markets as well.  In fact, I would argue that listening (and reflecting market action) is all relative strength is really doing.

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Relative Strength Spread

March 3, 2015

The chart below is the spread between the relative strength leaders and relative strength laggards (universe of mid and large cap stocks).  When the chart is rising, relative strength leaders are performing better than relative strength laggards.    As of 3/2/15:

spread Relative Strength Spread

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation.  The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.   Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Indexes have no fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. 

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Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

March 2, 2015

As of the close, 3/2/15:

perf Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

Source: Yahoo! Finance

See www.powershares.com, www.ftportfolios.com, and www.arrowshares.com for more information.

The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  This post does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances which may be relevant to any product or security mentioned herein.  We are not soliciting any action based on this post.  It is for the general information of readers of this blog.  This post does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.  Before acting on any analysis, advice or recommendation in this post, investors should consider whether the security or strategy in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.  Dorsey Wright & Associates is the index provider for the above ETFs.

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Power 4 Holdings

March 2, 2015

Current holdings of the DWA PowerShares Sector 4 Model are shown below:

1 Power 4 Holdings

Click here for model details.

The information contained herein has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs.  Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this material without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities, commodities or exchange traded products. This document does not purport to be complete description of the securities or commodities, markets or developments to which reference is made. 

The PowerShares DWA Sector Portfolios are calculated by NYSE Euronext or its affiliates (NYSE Euronext). The PowerShares DWA Sector Momentum ETFs, which are based on Dorsey Wright indexes, are not issued, endorsed, sold, or promoted by NYSE Euronext, and NYSE Euronext makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

NYSE EURONEXT MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE DORSEY WRIGHT INDEXES OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL NYSE EURONEXT HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

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Weekly RS Recap

March 2, 2015

The table below shows the performance of a universe of mid and large cap U.S. equities, broken down by relative strength decile and quartile and then compared to the universe return.  Those at the top of the ranks are those stocks which have the best intermediate-term relative strength.  Relative strength strategies buy securities that have strong intermediate-term relative strength and hold them as long as they remain strong.

Last week’s performance (2/23/15 – 2/27/15) is as follows:

perf 03.02.15 Weekly RS Recap

This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation.  The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. 

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Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

February 27, 2015

As of the close, 2/27/15:

perf 02.27.15 Daily DWA Indexes Wrap

Source: Yahoo! Finance

See www.powershares.com, www.ftportfolios.com, and www.arrowshares.com for more information.

The performance above is based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends or all transaction costs.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  This post does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances which may be relevant to any product or security mentioned herein.  We are not soliciting any action based on this post.  It is for the general information of readers of this blog.  This post does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.  Before acting on any analysis, advice or recommendation in this post, investors should consider whether the security or strategy in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.  Dorsey Wright & Associates is the index provider for the above ETFs.

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