Guns and Monkeys

May 30, 2012

The National Rifle Association is well-known for its slogan “Guns don’t kill people; people kill people.” This sentiment has a long history and echoes the words of Seneca the Younger that “A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer’s hand.” I have often heard fans of financial modelling use a similar line of defence.

However, one of my favourite comedians, Eddie Izzard, has a rebuttal that I find most compelling. He points out that “Guns don’t kill people; people kill people, but so do monkeys if you give them guns.” This is akin to my view of financial models. Give a monkey a value at risk (VaR) model or the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and you’ve got a potential financial disaster on your hands.

—-from James Montier, The Flaws of Finance

To read the whole article at Advisor Perspectives click here. It’s a nice summary of some of the problems in modern finance as practiced.

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Hedge Fund Alternatives

May 29, 2012

From Barron’s, an interesting insight into the alternative space:

Investor interest in hedge-fund strategies has never been higher—but it’s the mutual-fund industry that seems to be benefiting.

Financial advisors and institutions are increasingly turning to alternative strategies to manage portfolio risk, though the flood of money into that area tapered off a bit last year, according to an about-to-be-released survey of financial advisors and institutional managers conducted by Morningstar and Barron’s. Many of them are finding the best vehicle for those strategies to be mutual funds.

Very intriguing, no? There are quite a few ways now, through ETFs or mutual funds, to get exposure to alternatives. We’ve discussed the Arrow DWA Tactical Fund (DWTFX) as a hedge fund alternative in the past as well. Tactical asset allocation is one way to go, but there are also multi-strategy hedge fund trackers, macro fund trackers, and absolute-return fund trackers, to say nothing of managed futures.

Each of these options has a different set of trade-offs in terms of potential return and volatility. For example, the chart below shows the Arrow DWA Tactical Fund, the IQ Hedge Macro Tracker, the IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker, and the Goldman Sachs Absolute Return Fund for the maximum period of time that all of the funds have overlapped.

hedgefundalternatives Hedge Fund Alternatives

(click on image to enlarge)

You can see that each of these funds moves differently. For example, the Arrow DWA Tactical Fund, which is definitely directional, has a very different profile than the Goldman Sachs Absolute Return Fund, which presumably is not (as) directional.

Very few of these options were even available to retail investors ten years ago. Now they are numerous, giving individuals the opportunity to diversify like never before. With proper due diligence, it’s quite possible you will find an alternative strategy that can improve your overall portfolio.

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