PDP: You’re The Top

July 8, 2011

The Powershares DWA Technical Leaders Index (PDP) tops the all-cap equities category at ETFdb.com for year-to-date performance.

Click to enlarge. Source: www.etfdb.com

ETFdb had a “category kings” article for the first half of the year and listed a different ETF as the top performer in the category for the first half of the year. I was a little confused, because when I checked on Morningstar, PDP had slightly better performance than the top performer they listed.

The winner in the “category kings” article was PKW, which is another great Powershares ETF focusing on buyback names. Morningstar shows returns through 6/30 of 10.91% at price and 10.98% at NAV for PKW, versus 10.93% at price and 11.04% at NAV for PDP. By Morningstar’s calculations, PDP is the winner for both price and NAV returns, but ETFdb may be using a different database.

At any rate, it seems to be at the top of the heap right now.

See www.powershares.com for more information on our three DWA Technical Leaders Index ETFs (PDP, PIE, PIZ).

Click here for disclosures. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Hedging Your Bets

July 8, 2011

Some wags have described hedge funds as “a compensation scheme masquerading as an investment strategy.” It is true that hedge funds are typically quite expensive: the industry standard fee is 2% annually, as well as 20% of any new profit above the previous high water mark. You can imagine the payday for a hedge fund manager with a $10 billion fund that has a 30%-up year ($200 million to “keep the lights on” and another $600 million in the form of a performance fee)! $800 million is a pretty good year for anyone. (On the other hand, that $600 million comes out of gains that would otherwise accrue to the investors in the fund.)

So what is it that a hedge fund is actually doing in terms of investment strategy? Well, that depends on the type of fund. Leverage (borrowed money that will magnify both gains and losses) is often used and many funds are both long and short. Some funds specialize in a particular asset like distressed debt, while others focus on a specific strategy like merger arbitrage. Some funds seek out the most attractive securities regardless of where they may be found. Funds with a ”go-anywhere” mandate are often referred to as global macro funds.

Going anywhere, according to a recent article in Reuters, doesn’t mean that making money is easy:

Only six months ago, few investors would have forecast that as of June 30, [John] Paulson’s flagship Advantage Fund would have lost 15 percent, or [David] Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital would be down 5 percent. Even Louis Bacon’s flagship Moore Global fund, which has boasted average annual returns of 19 percent for more than two decades, was down 5 percent for the year through June 16.

The article makes reference to all of the cross-currents in the global markets this year, including “events like Japan’s earthquake and nuclear disaster, the uneven U.S. economic recovery, enormous volatility in commodity prices and ongoing concerns about Greece and the solvency of other European nations.”

You could hire a hedge fund manager to navigate global markets for you—or, as an alternative, you could consider the Global Macro portfolio, our go-anywhere strategy, where our systematic relative strength process does the navigating for you. We’ve written before about its potential use as a hedge fund substitute. The investment universe is broad and encompasses domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities, currencies, real estate, and inverse funds. Unlike a hedge fund, however, our Global Macro strategy does not use leverage and we don’t charge 20% of the profits as a performance fee.

Although we think it’s pretty good, relative strength is certainly not an infallible process. At least this year, however, it seems to have done a better job dealing with all of the conflicting macro forces than some of the hedge fund replication ETFs and than some of the prominent funds themselves.

Look Ma, no performance fee!

Click to enlarge. Source: Yahoo! Finance

To obtain a fact sheet and prospectus for the Arrow DWA Tactical Fund (DWTFX) or the Arrow DWA Balanced Fund (DWAFX), click here.

Click here for disclosures. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Never Underestimate Inertia!

July 8, 2011

The law of unintended consequences strikes again. A few years ago, in 2006 to be exact, legislation enabling automatic employee enrollment in 401ks was passed in order to boost retirement savings. An article in the Wall Street Journal suggests that automatic enrollment might be having the opposite effect.

Under the law, companies are allowed to automatically enroll workers in their 401(k) plans, rather than require employees to sign up on their own. The measure was intended to encourage more people to bulk up their retirement nest eggs—a key goal in a country where millions of people aren’t saving enough.

But an analysis done for The Wall Street Journal shows about 40% of new hires at companies with automatic enrollments are socking away less money than they would if left to enroll voluntarily, the Employee Benefit Research Institute found.

More people were getting enrolled in the plan, but the initial contribution rates were set at lower levels than new enrollees typically selected on their own!

More than two-thirds of companies set contribution rates at 3% of salary or less, unless an employee chooses otherwise. That’s far below the 5% to 10% rates participants typically elect when left to their own devices, the researchers said.

Some of the plans have automatic escalation, but even these plans did not seem to go far enough.

An October study by EBRI and the Defined Contribution Institutional Investment Association found that, depending on their incomes, 54% to 73% of employees would fall short of amassing enough money to retire if they enrolled in their companies’ 401(k) plans at the default-contribution rate and were auto-escalated by 1% a year to a maximum of 6%.

The net result has been a mixed bag. Enrollment rates have climbed from 67% to 85%, but contribution rates have dropped!

Among plans Aon Hewitt administers, the average contribution rate declined to 7.3% in 2010, from 7.9% in 2006. The Vanguard Group Inc. says average contribution rates at its plans fell to 6.8% in 2010, from 7.3% in 2006. Over the same period, the average for Fidelity Investments’ defined contribution plans decreased to 8.2%, from 8.9%.

Vanguard estimates about half the decline “was attributable to increased adoption of auto-enrollment.”

Obviously, it’s not the auto-enrollment itself that’s the problem. It’s simply that most of the plans have the automatic enrollment savings rate or the top escalation rate set way, way too low—and Big Brother underestimated inertia.

The study found that if people were auto-enrolled at 3%, they were just too lazy to proactively change it to 10%, or whatever. If you are in charge of auto-enrollment at your firm, the obvious fix is to start it at 6% or so, and escalate it 1% annually, up to 15% or so. A few more people might opt out due to the higher initial rate, but—again, due to inertia—most people would leave it alone and thus have a chance at a decent retirement.

Don't let inertia get the best of you

Source: www.ebaumsworld.com

Financial advisors, on the other hand, know all about inertia. Advisors have to fight client inertia all the time. Inertia is closely related to the behavioral finance construct of fear of regret. Clients don’t want to make a mistake that they will regret, so they take no action at all. Philosophically, of course, taking no action is also taking an action, but clients tend not to see it that way, despite the fact that in the long run, opportunity cost usually dwarfs capital loss.

Markets offer infinite opportunities for error and regret (much of which is unfortunately actualized by the typical retail investor) but you can’t let a little thing like that dissuade you. That’s why one of the most important functions of a financial advisor is to get clients to do the right thing at the right time. Disciplined use of relative strength can often be a big help in that regard.

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Sector and Capitalization Performance

July 8, 2011

The chart below shows performance of US sectors and capitalizations over the trailing 12, 6, and 1 month(s). Performance updated through 7/7/2011.

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