Jim Rogers on Inflation

March 15, 2012

From an interview on Clusterstock:

Everybody is paying higher prices for oil and that obviously impacts consumption everywhere. It’s not just oil, it’s food and everything else that’s going up. There’s inflation everywhere, the U.S. lies about it. I mean, the U.S. government lies about inflation but there’s inflation everywhere. I mean, I don’t know if you go shopping, but if you do, you know prices are up. The government says they’re not. I don’t know where they shop. Everybody else’s prices are up.

There’s obviously inflation in Mr. Roger’s neighborhood. Based on the Everyday Price Index, inflation is a lot higher than the reported CPI. They’re different measures, but depending on what you buy, your personal inflation rate could be a lot different than the government’s.

The market doesn’t seem to be reacting strongly to inflation pressures right now, but there is no telling if that will change in the future. Some asset classes respond poorly to inflation, but others perform well and can act as inflation hedges.

I don’t get the sense—judging from the public’s heavy bond buying—that inflation is on the radar for most investors. It’s probably wise to have an investment policy that is flexible enough to include inflation hedges if they are needed. Or you could just let a manager handle the global tactical allocation strategy for you. I’m just saying.

Source: CNBC (click to enlarge)

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From the Archives: Anti-Equity Sentiment

March 15, 2012

Time will tell whether Institutional Investor’s Julie Segal was prophetic or just susceptible to well-know behavioral finance tendencies in her article, The Equity Culture Loses Its Bloom, in which she gives a host of reasons why there is no hope for equities going forward. However, I think she has accurately captured the current fears of many investors.

As investment moves away from equities, speculation will likewise shift from stocks to other investments, including real estate, commodities and currencies. “The money supply won’t shrink, and those dollars will need a home,” says Bove. Alternatives will continue to attract money from investors’ erstwhile equity allocations.

Surely, the mindset explained in the article goes a long ways toward explaining why there has been so much demand for our Global Macro strategy this year, which can invest in U.S. equities (long & inverse), international equities (long & inverse), currencies, commodities, real estate, and fixed income. Global Macro is available as a separate account and through the Arrow DWA Tactical Fund (DWTFX). The Global Macro portfolio comes along with a systematic method for determining when and how much exposure to take in various asset classes as conditions change.

Click here to visit ArrowFunds.com for a prospectus & disclosures. Click here for disclosures from Dorsey Wright Money Management.

—-this article originally appeared 12/21/2009. It’s clearly true that investors still don’t like equities! Many advisors are also quite leary of piling into bonds at this stage in the recovery. Global Macro might still be a useful way of easing clients back into the financial markets.

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Fund Flows

March 15, 2012

The Investment Company Institute is the national association of U.S. investment companies, including mutual funds, closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and unit investment trusts (UITs). Members of ICI manage total assets of $11.82 trillion and serve nearly 90 million shareholders. Flow estimates are derived from data collected covering more than 95 percent of industry assets and are adjusted to represent industry totals.

Taxable bond funds have now attracted nearly $58 billion in net new assets in 2012—far ahead of the other asset classes.

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