Our latest sentiment survey was open from 3/16/12 to 3/23/12. The Dorsey, Wright Polo Shirt Raffle continues to drive advisor participation, and we greatly appreciate your support! This round, we had 45 advisors participate in the survey. If you believe, as we do, that markets are driven by supply and demand, client behavior is important. We’re not asking what you think of the market—since most of our blog readers are financial advisors, we’re asking instead about the behavior of your clients. Then we’re aggregating responses exclusively for our readership. Your privacy will not be compromised in any way.
After the first 30 or so responses, the established pattern was simply magnified, so we are comfortable about the statistical validity of our sample. Most of the responses were from the U.S., but we also had multiple advisors respond from at least four other countries. Let’s get down to an analysis of the data! Note: You can click on any of the charts to enlarge them.
Question 1. Based on their behavior, are your clients currently more afraid of: a) getting caught in a stock market downdraft, or b) missing a stock market upturn?
Chart 1: Greatest Fear. From survey to survey, the S&P 500 rallied +2.3%, and all of our client sentiment indicators responded positively. The greatest fear number fell to its all-time lows, from 83% to 62%. It’s hard to believe we’ve been running the survey for 2 whole years, and clients still have not even hit the high 50′s. On the flip side, the opportunity group rose from 17% to 38%.
Chart 2. Greatest Fear Spread. Another way to look at this data is to examine the spread between the two groups. The spread fell to its all-time lows this round at 24%.
Question 2. Based on their behavior, how would you rate your clients’ current appetite for risk?
Chart 3: Average Risk Appetite. The overall risk appetite number rose to just under its all-time highs which were set in April of 2011. Close, but no cigar. This round, we saw an average risk appetite of 3.02. If the market continues to rally, so will the overall risk appetite number.
Chart 4: Risk Appetite Bell Curve. This chart uses a bell curve to break out the percentage of respondents at each risk appetite level. The bell curve continues its recend trend towards more risk. This round, over half of all respodents wanted a risk appetite of 3.
Chart 5: Risk Appetite Bell Curve by Group. The next three charts use cross-sectional data. This chart plots the reported client risk appetite separately for the fear of downdraft and for the fear of missing upturn groups. This chart sorts out as expected, with the upturn group wanting more risk than the downturn group.
Chart 6: Average Risk Appetite by Group. Historically, this is one of the most volatile indicators in the survey. This round, the upturn group actually fell, while the dowturn group moved higher. We’d expect both groups to move higher in a risingmarket, but the upturn group has been known to buck the trend.
Chart 7: Risk Appetite Spread. This is a spread chart constructed from the data in Chart 6, where the average risk appetite of the downdraft group is subtracted from the average risk appetite of the missing upturn group. The spread fell this round.
From survey to survey, the market was up +2.3%, and all the indicators performed as expected. We’re now sitting at the lowest fear levels we’ve ever seen in the history of the survey. The market has rallied roughly +23% from recent lows in September, and our sentiment indicators are responding to that information. If the market continues to move higher, we will eventually hit par on the overall fear indicator (50-50 split), which might happen sooner than you expect.
No one can predict the future, as we all know, so instead of prognosticating, we will sit back and enjoy the ride. A rigorously tested, systematic investment process provides a great deal of comfort for clients during these types of fearful, highly uncertain market environments. Until next time, good trading and thank you for participating.