Affluent Investors Settle Down

October 17, 2012

According to a Merrill Lynch survey of affluent investors, they are beginning to adapt to the current economic and market situation as the new normal, as opposed to looking at it as a temporary period of high volatility. Perhaps because they’ve now made that psychological leap, affluent investors are beginning to feel that their situation is more stable. From a Penta article:

To prepare for a more volatile environment, this affluent group also is making efforts to control what they can by spending less, paying down debt, and generally “putting their lives in check,” Durkin said. Of the families surveyed, 50% said they’ve taken steps to gain greater control of their finances, like sticking to a budget (32%), making more joint investment decisions with a spouse (29%), and setting tangible goals (28%). One third of respondents said they’re living “more within their means.”

In other words, the affluent are adapting by toggling back their lifestyle and saving more.

Making that psychological shift is critical because it allows a lot of good things to happen. It’s also perhaps a realization that although you can’t control the markets, there is a lot you can control that will impact your eventual net worth—namely, living beneath your means and saving more. Being affluent, in and of itself, won’t build net worth.

Once a client has good habits in place, compounding kicks in and net worth tends to grow more rapidly than clients expect. Clients are usually delighted with this discovery!

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What is the Back-Up Plan?

October 17, 2012

A useful consideration for retirement planning should include evaluating the backstop in the case of a funding shortfall. In other words, if there are insufficient assets to support the desired standard of living in retirement who or what is the back-up plan?

Bob Collie’s article A Perspective on Retirement Security published in the September/October 2012 issue of IMCA’s Investments & Wealth Monitor contrasts two extreme cases:

Most approaches set money aside to back the targeted retirement income. The amounts vary considerably. At one extreme are employment-based pensions provided to federal employees before 1986 under the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS). A significant part of these promises have not been pre-funded; they are paid when they fall due out of current federal government revenues. Despite a substantial unfunded liability of roughly $750 billion as of September 30, 2010 (OPM, undated), these pensions are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. The funding arrangement is exceptionally weak, but the backstop is exceptionally strong.

By contrast, consider the assets that must be set aside to fund benefits paid by insurance companies. Insurance companies are required to hold reserves against their book of annuity business based on cautious assumptions about interest rates and mortality. Those required reserves are materially larger if the assets are invested in anything other than the safest investments. This approach reflects the fact that insurance companies have no backstop, nowhere to turn for additional funding in the event of a shortfall. So if the insurance industry is to survive through thick and thin, it must take a cautious and long-term approach to funding and investment.

Notice how the lack of backstop for insurance companies dramatically affects their savings rate! This is a useful context for considering the backstop for each individual and it will likely be different for each client. Some clients will have the backstop of the federal government, some the backing of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (in the case that their Defined Benefit Plan fails), but many will have no formal backstop. I suspect that the degree of engagement in implementing a serious savings and investment plan will change dramatically for those who begin to contemplate the prospects of either materially reducing their standard of living in retirement or turning to children for help.

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High RS Diffusion Index

October 17, 2012

The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of mid and large cap stocks.) As of 10/16/12.

diffusion101712 High RS Diffusion Index

The 10-day moving average of this indicator is 74% and the one-day reading is 76%.

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