The only thing new under the sun is the history you haven’t read yet.—-Mark Twain
Investors often have the conceit that they are living in a new era. They often resort to new-fangled theories, without realizing that all of the old-fangled things are still around mainly because they’ve worked for a long time. While circumstances often change, human nature doesn’t change much, or very quickly. You can generally count on people to behave in similar ways every market cycle. Most portfolio lessons are timeless.
As proof, I offer a compendium of quotations from an old New York Times article:
WHEN you check the performance of your fund portfolio after reading about the rally in stocks, you may feel as if there is a great party going on and you weren’t invited. Perhaps a better way to look at it is that you were invited, but showed up at the wrong time or the wrong address.
It isn’t just you. Research, especially lately, shows that many investors don’t match market performance, often by a wide margin, because they are out of sync with downturns and rallies.
Christine Benz, director of personal finance at Morningstar, agrees. “It’s always hard to speak generally about what’s motivating investors,” she said, “but it’s emotions, basically,” resulting in “a pattern we see repeated over and over in market cycles.”
Those emotions are responsible not only for drawing investors in and out of the broad market at inopportune times, but also for poor allocations to its niches.
Where investors should be allocated, many professionals say, is in a broad range of assets. That will smooth overall returns and limit the likelihood of big losses resulting from an excessive concentration in a plunging market. It also limits the chances of panicking and selling at the bottom.
In investing, as in party-going, it’s often safer to let someone else drive.
This is not ground-breaking stuff. In fact, investors are probably bored to hear this sort of advice over and over—but it gets repeated because investors ignore the advice repeatedly! This same article could be written today, or written 20 years from now.
You can increase your odds of becoming a successful investor by constructing a reasonable portfolio that is diversified by volatility, by asset class, and by complementary strategy. Relative strength strategies, for example, complement value and low-volatility equity strategies very nicely because the excess returns tend to be uncorrelated. Adding alternative asset classes like commodities or stodgy asset classes like bonds can often benefit a portfolio because they respond to different return drivers than stocks.
As always, the bottom line is not to get carried away with your emotions. Although this is certainly easier said than done, a diversified portfolio and a competent advisor can help a lot.