How did institutional investors handle their equity allocations in the aftermath of the financial crisis? Just as a student of behavioral finance would have expected. As reported by the WSJ:
The average college endowment had 16% of its investment portfolio in U.S. stocks as of the end of June 2013, the most recent academic year, according to a poll of 835 schools conducted by Commonfund, an organization that helps invest money for colleges. That is down from 23% in 2008 and 32% a decade ago. The 18% allocation to foreign stocks didn’t change in that period. Schools in the poll, which collectively manage nearly $450 billion, had 53% of their funds in alternative strategies, up from 33% in 2003.
The average allocation of corporate pension funds to stocks was 43% at the end of last year, down from 61% at the end of 2003, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. The average public pension fund had 52% of its portfolio in stocks at the end of 2013, down from 61% at the end of 2003, J.P. Morgan said.
After going through a traumatic event like the financial crisis, it is only natural to want to dial back the risk. However, now that the S&P 500 Total Return Index has had an annualized returns of 18.39 percent over the past five years, ending 5/31/14, institutional investors are starting to realize just how costly their risk aversion has been.
Meanwhile, U.S. equity exposure in our Global Macro portfolio has been on the rise in recent years. This global tactical asset allocation fund is driven by relative strength and as a result it dispassionately overweights those asset classes demonstrating the best performance.
This Global Macro strategy is also used to manage The Arrow DWA Tactical Fund, which has outperformed 81 percent of its peers over the past 5 years—no doubt in large part because of its relatively high U.S. equity exposure.
Source: Morningstar, as of 6/24/14
After experiencing two major bear markets in the last decade, investors big and small are demanding risk management. However, it is important to remember that part of risk management is seeking to manage downside risk and part of it is seeking to capitalize in strong equity markets.
The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Click here for Appendix A. This example is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not represent a past recommendation. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Indexes have no fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.