Waiting for the Dust to Settle

The Irrelevant Investor kills it with this post:

The Worst Investment Strategy Ever

Sarcasm

Do you make bad decisions when your portfolio goes down? What if there was a way to automate the decision so that your emotions wouldn’t get in the way. Good news, I found a way!

Here is the strategy, every time stocks drop five percent, you sell and wait for “clarity.” Why would you voluntarily ride out volatility, right? And here is the best part, you don’t get back in until things have stabilized. Repurchase stocks when they are one percent higher than when you sold, just to make sure that the dust has settled. Better be safe then sorry right? Here is what that strategy has looked like since the inception of the S&P 500.

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Alright so you didn’t beat the buy and hold investors but you did compound your money at 2.8% with less than a ten percent annualized standard deviation. This is just slightly worse than what the average investor has historically earned, but after adjusting for risk this looks like a great alternative.

End sarcasm

If you want to suppress volatility it’s likely you’ll suppress your returns as well, it’s just that simple. Here is an idea- if you are uncomfortable with equities, pick a different asset class. Notably, five year treasury notes have compounded at 6.6% a year since 1957 with an annualized standard deviation of just five percent. Unless your looking for an equity strategy with bond-like returns, you might want to rethink jumping in and out every time the market takes a dip.

Comfortable doesn’t work in the financial markets if you want to earn equity-like returns over time.  My simple solution (for typical 55ish-65ish+  year old): Divide your portfolio into three buckets.  Income Bucket, Balanced Bucket, and Growth Bucket.  For your Growth Bucket, don’t try to manage the volatility (that is, in large part, what the other buckets are for).  Don’t do something similar to the strategy described above of selling when you feel uncomfortable and buying when “the dust settles.”  Rather, accept that your Growth Bucket is going to have some volatility to it, some drawdowns, some uncomfortable years.  By all means, spend the necessary time (or seek the appropriate financial advice) to put together a well-thought-out allocation for that Growth Bucket, but once that part is done, don’t look at the Growth Bucket in isolation.  Look at it in the context of your overall asset allocation.  Simple advice, but I believe it would lead to much better outcomes than are typically achieved in the financial markets by investors.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.  The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee.  There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value.  Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  This post does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances which may be relevant to any product or security mentioned herein.  We are not soliciting any action based on this post.  It is for the general information of readers of this blog.  This post does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.  Before acting on any analysis, advice or recommendation in this post, investors should consider whether the security or strategy in question is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.  

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